For a long time, it was a great wish of Volodomir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine: to join the military alliance of the West. Because if Ukraine were a member, the West would help militarily to defeat Russia. But a line can be drawn through that wish. NATO does not want Ukraine to join, so the country must look for other allies in the military field.
1. Why can’t Ukraine join NATO?
Before we look at who those allies could be, let’s first ask why a membership for Ukraine is not an option. We discuss it with Laurien Crump, senior lecturer in International Relations at Utrecht University. “NATO doesn’t want war with Russia,” Crump said. “That is also one reason that Ukraine has never acceded before.”
“According to Article 5 – an attack on one Member State is an attack on all – NATO should come to the aid of Ukraine in a war. That risk, which has become a reality with the current war, is too great for the Member States.”
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“Zelensky has now understood that message. The day after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he asked if his country could join, but there was a deafening silence on the NATO side,” Crump said. “And he says now not on his bare knees to want to beg.”
According to Rob de Wijk, founder of the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, there is another reason. “A hard requirement for NATO membership is that a country must solve internal and external problems before it can become a member. That is, NATO does not want to import insecurity from another country. When Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, it was actually already happened. That level of insecurity prevents Ukraine from joining NATO.”
2. And that no-fly zone. Why isn’t it coming?
“Such a no-fly zone may sound very friendly, but that means that if Russia flies in Ukrainian airspace, NATO has to shoot down the Russian aircraft. And that means that NATO is still getting involved in the conflict,” says Crump. .
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Rob de Wijk: “During the fight against Saddam Hussein, a no-fly zone was chosen in Iraq. But then it was a situation that only took place in Iraq. That is different in Ukraine. The danger comes from a neighboring country. “In this case, that means you have to enforce a no-fly zone not only in Ukraine, but also over Russia. If you want to help NATO into the abyss, you have to do that.”
3. The Prime Minister of Poland talks about a NATO peacekeeping mission after his visit to Kiev. What is that?
“I think he just yells something,” says De Wijk. “We are blessed with politicians who do not know exactly what this is about. A peace mission in wartime is not possible. That is only possible once a peace agreement has been signed. Then a mission can ensure that the country in question remains stable.”
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“And even if there were a peace agreement, NATO cannot be the organization that oversees it,” says De Wijk. “Because NATO is exactly the problem. Then Russia says: Look, NATO is occupying Ukraine.”
4. The Prime Ministers of the Czech Republic and Slovenia were also in Kiev. Can they help Ukraine?
Rob de Wijk: “Supplying weapons is a two-sided affair. There is no such thing as NATO weapons. The Americans also supply them, for example. But send troops? If you want to commit suicide, you can. If a Czech Republic, Poland or Slovenia if you do that, that country becomes part of the battle. And what does NATO do if Poland is attacked?”
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Laurien Crump: “You notice that the idea of a NATO peacekeeping mission is already causing tensions within that organization, and also within the European Union. The EU already said that the countries mentioned had not consulted with them. Then you know enough. They don’t like it, because then the western alliance will still be involved.”
5. What can NATO do to help Ukraine?
“Not much, actually,” says De Wijk. “Especially because of the cutbacks over the past thirty years. There are no longer large combat units with a lot of firepower. What is still possible: sending radar aircraft. They use this to see what is happening in Ukraine. But especially to see whether there is a attack against NATO.”
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A statement from Brussels is also a possibility. Today there is a NATO meeting with the defense ministers of the member states. “Such a statement is intended to keep the morale of Ukrainians high,” said Laurien Crump. “And it is a signal to Russia. During negotiations, every support is important. But in fact NATO must now operate very carefully.”
6. What should NATO not do?
Rob de Wijk: “You should not want any step that causes further escalation. Today, for example, America says that Putin is a war criminal. That is morally correct, but very inconvenient.”
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“The same thing happened to Syrian President Assad. The West said, ‘He’s a war criminal, so we don’t talk to him anymore.’ That too is morally justifiable, but if there is no more talking, then it is rational for those who are called a war criminal to continue fighting,” says De Wijk.
“I fear that the West will do things that seem right, but turn out wrong. Things that will make it impossible to talk to Putin. It is clear that you eventually want him to be brought to justice. But let the war end first. to be.”
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