‘No indications that many Muslims voted for the PVV’

The PVV’s historic election victory was obvious. In large parts of the country the map turned light blue, after the color of Wilders’ party. A day after his victory, Wilders said that he is happy that many Muslims in the Netherlands also voted for the PVV. Remarkable, because aversion to Islam has been the party’s trademark for years.

This image has been reinforced in the media and on social platforms in recent days. In the program WNL on Sunday For example, writer Lale Gül said that she has fifteen friends with a migration background who voted for the PVV. This image was also regularly reflected in other talk shows and reports: there was now also considerable support for Wilders’ party among Muslims.

Yet researchers see a different picture. “When I look at our measurements, we actually see what we have always seen,” says Niels Spierings. He is a professor of sociology at Radboud University and also co-director of the National Voter Survey, which has been conducting research into voting behavior in House of Representatives elections for fifty years.

Spierings sees in his data that the specific group that identifies as Muslim is much more left-progressive oriented. “The radical right is not popular there at all. We have no indications that the majority of Muslims vote for the PVV. The number of people from those groups who indicated that they would vote for PVV is much lower than among the rest of the Dutch population.”

He is surprised by the picture painted in the media. “It’s all anecdotal evidence. If I were to take my family as the standard, the House of Representatives would also look very different.”

Research agency Ipsos conducted a voter survey on election day on behalf of the NOS. It showed that 91 percent of PVV voters have no migration background.

Ipsos emphasizes that, due to a small group of respondents, this is no more than a cautious indication. “Looking at the party preference of people with a migration background, a party like Denk is doing well among this group, just like GroenLinks-PvdA.”

In the National Voter Survey, coordinated by Radboud University and Utrecht University, people are also asked which party they are likely to vote for. Spierings sees that many Muslims of Moroccan and Turkish descent indicate that it is very unlikely that they will vote for the PVV.

“Our figures are from the beginning of November. We do not yet have figures from after the elections. In general, fewer people say they vote for the PVV than actually do so. So the figures will differ somewhat. But it is unlikely that people from, for example, GroenLinks-PvdA to the PVV,” says Spierings.

He emphasizes that it is not impossible for Muslims to vote for the PVV. “People also vote on substantive points such as the economic agenda. The PVV fits in well with this group.”

Pollster Aziz el Kaddouri of Het Opiniehuis also did not see that the PVV could count on many votes from Muslims. In his poll, the number of Muslims who vote for Wilders’ party remained below five percent. “That is negligible,” says El Kaddouri.

“There is not much attraction to the party either. I have noticed that Muslims are more likely to find their way to the right to Forum for Democracy. But undoubtedly there will be Muslims who voted for the PVV. But that may be half a seat. “

El Kaddouri explains how he arrived at that number. “There are 700,000 voting Muslims in the Netherlands. Half of them vote. 60 percent votes for Denk, the rest is largely divided among the left-wing parties. They are often also very popular among Muslims. At the bottom, perhaps some practically educated people will vote for Wilders. voices. People who only listen to the one-liners, for example, but that is a very small group. So what are we talking about.”

The pollster does note that he conducted his research in early November, before much was said about Wilders’ “milder tone”. He says he knows a broad network of Muslims, with no one claiming to have voted for the PVV. “And I am very open-minded. Everyone can vote whatever they want. So there is no need to be afraid to speak out.”

Among other groups with a migration background, both El Kaddouri and Spierings see that there has always been more enthusiasm there to vote for the PVV. “We see that the PVV is relatively more popular among people with an Asian background, especially East and Southeast Asia. This is also the case among Latin Americans.”