No flu wave again, consequences after corona unclear
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So far, there has been no flu wave in the Netherlands this year either. Research by the Amsterdam UMC, the GGD Amsterdam and the RIVM shows that flu is currently hardly circulating. .
According to doctor-virologist Menno de Jong, it is possible that after two flu-free years we will have a more severe epidemic, as soon as the corona rules are released.
Flu wave normally lasts until the end of March
In normal years, the flu wave lasts from the end of December to the end of March. According to figures from the health institute Nivel, the number of people with flu-like complaints has been considerably lower for weeks than in the years before corona. Nivel looks at the number of people per 100,000 inhabitants who report to their GP with complaints that may indicate the flu. In the last week of 2021, only six people per 100,000 inhabitants registered. That’s well below the epidemic limit.
Because flu complaints resemble corona complaints and the figures from Nivel do not say everything about the circulation of the flu virus, the Amsterdam UMC and the GGD are also investigating how many people are carrying the flu. This is done by testing people in a corona test street for influenza (flu), says De Jong. The doctor is also a member of the Outbreak Management Team (OMT) that advises the cabinet on the fight against the corona virus. “We have occasionally seen a positive flu test in the test street so far.”
Lockdown stops flu
The explanation for the absence of the flu lies in the lockdown due to the corona pandemic. Because flu is transmitted in the same way as corona, the measures also work against that virus. The chance that all corona rules will already be released this winter and that the flu virus will therefore be able to circulate easily again seems small to De Jong. That means that we will probably hardly experience a flu for the second year in a row.
This makes it difficult to predict what will happen once we do go back to normal, he says. It is rare in history that the flu wave was skipped. “The question is what will happen to the immunity of the population now that the flu has not circulated for two years.”
Protection
If fewer people come into contact with the virus, the natural protection against it among the population may decrease. “If you then open everything again, the flu can spread extra quickly.” Whether that will happen in the summer or only next winter is difficult to say. “That also depends on what happens abroad. If there is a flu wave elsewhere, it can easily travel here.”
At the Amsterdam UMC, research is currently being conducted into the decreased immunity against flu.
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