It is INSEE who says it in its latest demographic study: subject to the continuation of current trends, the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region would have 8.65 million inhabitants in 2070, against the current 8,043,000, 650,000 more inhabitants, i.e. more 12,600 inhabitants on average more per year.
A growth, certainly moderate compared to what the past has reserved for us, but still clearly higher than the French average.
Above all, it would be driven largely by the excess of arrivals over departures and births.
The rate of population increase, of 0.6% between 2013 and 2018, would therefore be 0.15% on average each year between 2018 and 2070.
The demographic peak would be reached in 2056 with 8.69 million inhabitants, the population would then erode very slightly.
Isère: a population that increases from 0.16 to 0.19% per year
But what is interesting to note in this study is that if Ain, Rhône and Haute-Savoie will be the engines of regional population growth, Isère is just behind with an increase in its population that will be greater than that of the region, which therefore does not suffer a demographic decline.
Indeed, of the twelve departments that make up the region, half would register a population growth greater than or equal to the regional average: Ain, Rhône, Haute-Savoie, Drôme, Puy-de-Dôme and finally Isere.
Thus, Isère would register a demographic growth of between +0.16 and +0.19% per year, for a regional average of +0.15%.
“The progression of Isère, the second regional department by population, would be supported by the natural balance and the migratory balance in a balanced way, Nord-Isère benefits from the peri-urbanization of Lyon”, specifies the INSEE.
Stability for the Loire, Ardèche and Savoy
Other departments of the region would remain almost stable in terms of population by 2070, which has never happened in recent decades: these are the Loire, Savoie and Ardèche.
Finally, the situation is less good for three out of four Auvergne departments: Allier, Cantal and Haute-Loire, which would see their population drop sharply. For them, demographic decline will be a reality!
-The complete study from INSEE (pdf, click): on_in_151
