The coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc in China after authorities lifted all restrictions related to the country’s previous zero-tolerance policy.
In Henan province, 90% of the population is said to have been infected with the coronavirus, according to a statement from the health commission.
This corresponds to approximately 88.5 million people.
– As of January 6, 2023, the Covid infection rate in Henan Province is 89%. This was stated by Kan Quancheng, director of the Henan Province Health Commission.
Henan is the third most populous province in China, with a population of 99.4 million people.
FAFO researcher Hedda Flatø says the infection situation in the country is very uncertain.
– As China has stopped mass testing, there is more uncertainty about the infection data, but there are many indications that there is a lot of infection in many places.
– Sichuan provincial health authorities said last week that 80 percent of the population could be infected, which is similar to Henan’s estimate.
– Worrying
It underestimates deaths from infection
Despite huge infection numbers, China had reported just 5,272 Covid-19-related deaths by Jan. 8, one of the lowest death rates for the virus in the world.
The World Health Organization has previously said that Chinese authorities are underreporting infection data, and international infection experts have estimated that one million Chinese he could end up dying of coronavirus this year.
FAFO’s Hedda Flatø says part of the reason is the Chinese authorities’ method of defining Covid-19-related deaths.
HARD HIT: Fafo’s Hedda Flatø says Chinese countryside could be hit hard due to rising infections. Photo: Fafo
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– The Chinese authorities have very strict criteria for counting something as death from covid: only covid patients who die of pneumonia and lung failure count.
– It is difficult in all countries to determine with certainty whether or not covid is the direct cause of a death, but it is convenient to have such a strict definition if the death toll is to appear low.
There is therefore a great deal of uncertainty about how high the actual deaths will be.
– There are many different estimates that are significantly higher than this, but no one knows for sure what the true death toll is, says Flatø.
Open borders
Chinese authorities lifted quarantine requirements for incoming travelers on Sunday, ending nearly three years of self-imposed isolation.
The reopening of the borders was the latest step away from China’s zero tolerance model, which has come under heavy criticism in recent months and resulted in historic demonstrations in the country.
MILLIONS OF TRAVELERS. Several tens of millions of Chinese are expected to leave major cities in the coming weeks. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/NTB
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As China is lifting restrictions on travel to and from overseas, several Western countries have created special infection control rules for Chinese travellers. The United States, the United Kingdom and Japan are just some of the countries that have introduced stricter measures for Chinese citizens.
Expect infection numbers to rise
Despite already staggeringly high infection numbers, many experts expect the COVID-19 infection rate to rise during the month. Chinese New Year is celebrated on January 22, and millions of travelers are expected to leave the country’s largest cities.
Over the weekend, 34.7 million Chinese were reported to be travelling. This is an increase of approximately 30% over the previous year.
FAFO’s Hedda Flatø says several areas outside major cities are poorly equipped to combat possible outbreaks of infection.
– There will likely be even more contagion in the countryside as migrant workers travel from cities and home to their families to celebrate the New Year. Many vulnerable and elderly people live in the countryside and the healthcare system is much worse than in the cities.
– Shortly after reopening, central authorities communicated to update health preparedness and vaccination coverage in the countryside, but local authorities have had little time to prepare and access to resources with which to update is limited. How it goes depends on how bad people are affected by the virus.
