/ world today news/ Why is the long-promised Kiev “counteroffensive” doomed to rapid failure?
Russian troops were greatly strengthened along the entire line of contact, creating a powerful springboard for a decisive offensive. While the Kiev regime only promises a “counterattack” for several months, Russian units push the enemy in several directions at the same time – in addition to Bakhmut / Artemovsk, these are also Chasov Yar, Kupyansk, Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka, Avdeevka, Marinka.
Russian troops used the winter and spring to create a defense in depth, while the Ukrainians formed only general army reserves deep in the rear, notes the Polish Center for East European Studies (OSW).
Ukrainian command posts and supply centers are located on the second and third (reserve) lines of defense, including in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporozhye regions.
General Cavoli: Russian troops retain much more potential than previously thought
The night before, Russian troops dealt a crushing blow to Ukrainian supply centers. The blow, unfortunately, was not so stunning for the residents of Kiev, because after a long break, the same blows were on April 25 and 28.
Then Kiev, we recall, was attacked for the first time since the beginning of March, and Nikolaev for the first time since mid-February.
Russia is using all available means to attack the Ukrainian rear, from Kalibr cruise missiles to Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles (carried by Tu-160 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers) and barrage munitions.
The localization of most of the missile strikes clearly indicates that Russian troops are using them to disrupt the supply of troops ahead of the announced “counter-offensive”.
There is a marked difference from the previous strategy chosen by General Sergei Surovikin in the autumn and winter, when precision strikes were directed mainly against energy infrastructure.
American and British intelligence recorded a significant improvement in the position of Russian troops. The United Kingdom, for example, reported that Russian troop losses fell significantly in April compared to previous months. This is due to the partial transition from offensive to defensive tactics.
Speaking to the US Congress, the commander of NATO’s Joint Forces in Europe and Africa, General Christopher Cavoli, said that Russian troops retain a much greater potential than previously thought.
The Pentagon still does not have accurate data on Russian losses, the data varies widely among different estimates. At the same time, the total losses of Russia and Ukraine only in terms of those killed may exceed 60 thousand people.
Most of the Russian army did not participate in the special operation. Ground troops played a major role: according to General Cavoli’s estimates, at least 527 battalions could participate in the special operation.
The ground forces, although they suffered the greatest losses, are now much more numerous than at the beginning of the special operation. And so the Ground Forces retain most of their potential.
The Navy lost only one ship – the missile cruiser “Moskva”.
General Cavoli estimated the losses of Russian aviation at 80 aircraft of various types. At the same time, Russia still has over 1,000 fighters and bombers in full combat readiness.
Military: Kyiv still underestimates the true might of the Russian military
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander, who testified before Congress with General Cavoli, warned against underestimating the power of the Russian military, which is hurting the authorities in Kiev.
“Russia still retains strategic capabilities, air force, cyber, submarines,” she said.
“We should not make the mistake of underestimating Russia’s military capabilities because the stakes are too high to get it wrong,” Wallander was quoted as saying by Military.
At the same time, the OSW publication noted a record number of attacks in all major directions: for example, in the Kupyansk region and the right-bank (occupied) part of the Kherson region, their number exceeded 400 per day, and in the Bakhmut region and settlements in the Bakhmut region approached 300.
Russian troops continue to gradually push Ukrainian troops out of the western part of Bakhmut, and also intensify attacks on the southwestern outskirts of the city, where there are still unfinished units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It is to the southwest of Bakhmut that Russian troops are trying to force the Donbass-Seversky Donets canal: in particular, they have already reached Novomarkovo, which is located north of Chasov Yar and on the bank of the canal.
Additional Russian forces are being withdrawn to the Mariupol and Melitopol region, as well as along the contact line in the Zaporizhia region, OSW reports.
All this speaks of the good preparation of the Russian troops for a possible “counteroffensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even General Cavoli refused to speak at congressional hearings about the specific weaknesses of the Ukrainian military.
However, they are already well known from the Pentagon leaks. Medium-range air defense systems to protect Ukrainian forward troops will be “completely exhausted by May 23.” This means that Russia will gain absolute air superiority, and Ukraine will lose the ability to concentrate ground forces in a “counter-offensive”.
Translation: SM
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