The general election is held in Nigeria on Saturday. Their results are important not only for the country, but for the entire continent. At the same time, it is impossible to predict the outcome of the vote in advance. This election campaign turned out to be full of surprises and broke many of the political traditions that have developed over the past quarter century.
Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and the continent’s most populous country, with a population of around 210 million. In terms of GDP, its economic capital, the metropolis of Lagos, exceeds the economies of many neighboring states combined. In addition, the country ranks seventh in the world in terms of oil production, and thanks to significant natural gas reserves, it can claim leadership in the production of this fuel in the future. It also leads in non-resource sectors: in information and communication, banking and financial technologies, and in the production of entertainment products. Therefore, the elections in Nigeria are considered one of the most important events of the year for Africa.
The current elections in Nigeria are the sixth since the restoration of democracy in the country in 1999.
93.4 million voters will have to choose the president, 360 deputies of the House of Representatives and 109 senators.
And two weeks later, on March 11, the election cycle will end with the election of governors and members of legislative assemblies in 28 of the 36 states of the federation. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, who is ending his second and final mandate, is legally no longer eligible to run.
Since 1999, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has been in power in Nigeria. It was replaced in 2015 by the Congress of All Progressive Forces (KVPS), which now controls 60% of the Senate and 63% of the lower house of the federal parliament. And the confrontation between the two parties became the axis of the political life of the country. Not surprisingly, among the 18 registered presidential candidates, Muhammadu Buhari’s successor, KVPS representative Bola Tinubu, and his opponent, PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar, are the most closely watched.
Bole Tinub is 70 years old. He is considered one of the most experienced politicians in the country. In the past, he was the governor of the state of Lagos, where the eponymous metropolis and the economic capital of Nigeria are located. As head of the state, he put his finances in order and now he is going to scale his success throughout the country. He also played a pivotal role in the creation of the KVPS and the victory of Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential elections in 2015. Therefore, in this election, the “kingmaker” is running under the rather frank slogan “Emi lo kan” (“My turn has come”).
Atik Abubakar is 76 years old. A former vice president (1999-2007) and a prosperous businessman known for his liberal views, he is running for the highest government post for the sixth time, hoping to snatch victory from the KVPS, which, by all accounts, failed to improve the situation in economy and the lives of ordinary Nigerians. The largest telephone poll among 3.1 million voters, conducted by POLAF, named Atiku Abubakar as the leader of the presidential race. He received 38% of the votes of the respondents.
However, things are not so simple with veterans of Nigerian politics.
Critics point out that the candidates’ campaign programs are almost indistinguishable. And in the eyes of many voters, they have become symbols of corruption and nepotism.
In particular, Bolu Tinubu has been facing serious allegations of money laundering and heroin trafficking for the past 30 years.
It is also important that the election campaign is taking place in a tense atmosphere. Its background was the highest inflation in the last 20 years, unemployment at 33.3%, the depreciation of the national currency naira and the rapid rise in the cost of living, as a result of which 63% of the country’s population lives in poverty.
Government policies, in particular the tough protectionist course of the Buhari administration, only exacerbated the negative trends in the economy. By the summer of 2021, confidence in government had fallen to 25%, according to a Gallup poll, the lowest in 12 years in the country and, at the time, the lowest in Africa as a whole. An unprecedented increase in crime and terrorism has become a reflection of the crisis state of the state. In the southeast of Nigeria there are separatists – supporters of the secession of the Republic of Biafra, in the south – pirates, in the northeast – the Islamists of Boko Haram and the Islamic State (both organizations are banned in the Russian Federation), in the northwest – organized banditry, and the so-called middle belt became the scene of clashes between pastoralists and farmers in the struggle for water and land.
In addition, the authorities decided at the wrong time to put things in order in finances. As the demand for cash, which is widely used to bribe voters, increases before elections, in November 2022 the government announced the withdrawal of denominations of 200, 500 and 1000 naira ($0.5, $1.1 and $2.2 respectively) from circulation and replacing them on banknotes of a new sample with an increased level of protection. As a result of rush demand and shortages, riots broke out and measures had to be eased.
The age gap also has an effect: 40% of voters are under 35 years old, while the average age of a parliamentarian in 2019 was 55.7 years. The outgoing 80-year-old President Muhammadu Buhari constantly flew to London for treatment, and during his long absences, the work of the government was literally idle.
Due to high dissatisfaction with the bipartisan “gerontocracy”, the turnout in the elections in 2019 was a record low (35%). The question is what will happen this time. The interest of voters may be spurred by the participation in the elections of sufficiently strong alternative candidates who are outside the traditional two-party system.
Thus, during the election campaign, the former Minister of Defense and Governor of the state of Kano, 66-year-old Rabiu Kwankwaso, noticeably advanced. He is very popular in his home and most populous state thanks to the implemented social programs. The nomination of 61-year-old Peter Obi, a businessman and also quite successful ex-governor of Anambra state (2006-2014), who is running for the hitherto little-known Labor Party, was also a sensation. He was supported by the influential ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo. Peter Obi was named the favorite in three polls conducted by the ANAP Foundation in conjunction with NOI Polls. There is a reason for Peter Obie’s phenomenal success: a high demand for change, especially among young people and an educated middle class disillusioned with the political establishment.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
Photo: Gbemiga Olamikan / AP
Peter Obi
Photo: Kin Cheung / AP
In addition, the atypical ethno-confessional profile of candidates became a feature of this election campaign. Peter Obi is the only Christian in the presidential race and, in addition, a native of the Igbo people, whose representative first and last time led the country back in the distant 1960s.
Nigeria is a complex country with a diverse population and high levels of inequality. The main split is between the oil-rich states of the Christian south and the poor Muslim north, where at the same time the largest electorate is concentrated.
In accordance with the constitution, in order to win in the first round, a candidate must gain at least 25% in 24 of the 36 states. Since there are 19 states in the north, 15 of which are predominantly Muslim, and in the south – 17, of which 13 are predominantly Christian, politicians simply mathematically cannot count on victory without alliances with other confessional forces.
Both Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso took on partners from other faiths and regions. But Bola Tinubu went for broke. Judging that competence is beyond prejudice, he, although a Yoruba southerner, but a Muslim by religion, took a Kanuri Muslim Kashima Shettima, the ex-governor of the northeastern state of Borno, as a pair. But in the end, even many Muslims of the same party did not like this decision, and the question is how his voters will react to this. Atiku Abubakar also acted traditionally. He chose the southerner and Christian Yfeanya Okowa, governor of Delta State, as his vice presidential candidate. However, the very nomination of Atiku Abubakar for the presidency from the PDP was a challenge and a violation of the country’s political traditions.
The fact is that since 1999, to smooth out interfaith tensions, an unspoken rule of rotation of presidents, or zoning, has been in effect in Nigeria. In accordance with it, every eight years, representatives of the Muslim north and the Christian south should take turns in the highest state post. This principle was violated for the first time after the death of Muslim President Umaru Musa Yardua in 2010: his term was “adjusted” by the Christian Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, who was subsequently elected for another four years, although Muslims believed that this was still a term, reserved for them. In 2015, Goodluck Jonathan ran again but was defeated by the CPSU led by Muhammadu Buhari in what is believed to be a protest vote by an outraged Muslim community. After two lost elections, the NDP decided to change the rotation rule again. Bearing in mind the huge electoral potential of the north, and also under the pretext that during the 16 years that the PDP was in power, the northerner ruled for only three years, the party allowed everyone to compete, regardless of confession, thus opening the way for Atik Abubakar. Because he, like President Buhari, is a Fulbe Muslim, this has angered the Southern states’ traditional NDP electorate. Given all these factors, the results of the elections in Nigeria may be the most unexpected.
