(E24) Several of NHO’s companies believe that the future prospects have improved significantly. But the numbers are still weak, says chief economist Øystein Dørum.
The unmanned Huldra platform in the North Sea. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTBPublished: Published:
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– As recently as December, 41 per cent expected a deterioration, and only 10 per cent expected an improvement, says chief economist Øystein Dørum at NHO to E24.
Now the proportion of NHO’s member companies expecting worse times in the next six months has fallen to 21 per cent21 per cent from 30 per cent in February, while the proportion who believe in better times has increased to 19 per cent19 per cent from 16 per cent in February. This is shown by the recent member survey for March, which will be published on Thursday morning.
Still, there is no reason to rejoice just yet. The future prospects are still weak, according to Dørum.
– In a normal situation, there would have been a preponderance of optimists.
Stretch the team
At the same time, there are still large differences between the various industries.
The member companies of NHO Transport, Seafood Norway and Finans Norway are the most optimistic about the current market situation.
At the bottom of the scale, where NHO Byggenæringen is located, there is far more pessimism to be traced.
– The gap in the team is still large, says Dørum, and points out, among other things, that only 12 per cent of companies in the construction industry think the situation is “good”, while 46 per cent consider it “bad”.
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Øystein Dørum, chief economist at NHO, says that activity in the Norwegian economy has held up better than one might fear. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
The chief economist believes the logic is obvious:
– This is the industry that is hit the hardest by interest rate increases, with, among other things, a sharp drop in new home sales and starts, he says.
The same is the case with the future prospects. Here, too, it is the construction industry that takes the worst view of it, while the oil industry is the biggest optimist ahead of the coming six months.
– In seven of the national associations, led by Offshore Norway, the optimists dominate. In six of the national associations it is the opposite, says Dørum.
– Not very fast
Overall, NHO’s member companies believe that the current situation is somewhat better than in February.
The proportion who think it is “bad” drops from 25 per cent in February to 24 per cent in March. At the same time, 23 per cent believe that the situation is now “good”, compared to 21 per cent in February.
– The difference between good and bad is minus 1 per cent, compared to minus 4 per cent in February. Despite the improvement, these are still weak figures, says Dørum.
He points out that the assessment of the current situation has hovered around the zero line since the end of 2022.
– In the same period, the mainland economy has stagnated. These figures thus do not indicate any particular momentum in the Norwegian economy.
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Published: March 7, 2024 10:15 am
2024-03-07 09:15:35
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