If you are lagging behind in your NFL selection pool, you need to take risks with underdogs or unpopular favorites this week. If you are still alive in your NFL survivor pool, then there are no more “backup teams”. Whatever type of strategy you use in your various football pools this week, one constant remains: you have to make your choices correctly. Luckily, the experts at TeamRankings are here to help inform your NFL Week 18 picks with tips and advice on five key games.
Picks that are underestimated by the public can generate weekly payouts that make the difference between winning and losing an NFL pool throughout the season, while smart picks can result in success in weekly pools. TeamRankings is the only site that offers personalized picks that maximize your advantage in NFL selection pools. Check out TeamRankings football selections, NFL survivor selections and NFL betting selections.
NFL Pick ’em of the Week 18 Pool Selections: Tips, Strategy
How We Identify NFL Week 18 Value Picks
This article is written on Wednesday, but if the winning odds and pick popularity numbers hold up, the teams below all come up with compelling risk / reward trade-offs to differentiate your Week 18 picks from those of your pool opponents. .
It’s important to note that we’re not necessarily saying you should do all of these choices. In particular, some thwarted choices may be unnecessarily risky for your pool, even if they are technically undervalued. You need to take an overall level of risk with your choices that suits the size and rules of your pool. One-season pools usually require more conservative choices than one-week pools, but if you find yourself falling behind a leader with two weeks to make money, you may also need to increase the. number of risks you take. If you want our game-by-game selection recommendations for all your specific pools, use our Football Pick ’em Picks product.
To note: The winning odds and estimated popularity data below may change between publish time and kick off time. If you want the latest numbers, our product is updated several times a day.
Cleveland Browns contre Cincinnati Bengals
Point of deviation: -6.0
Choose popularity: 22%
Category: Favorite Value
The Bengals have already won the AFC North. Cincinnati RB Joe Mixon came out this week after testing positive for COVID, and QB Joe Burrow (knee) won’t start either. That’s why the line has shifted to make the Browns a big favorite.
So far, public data shows that most people still choose the Bengals. Take advantage and lock down the Browns.
SEMAINE 18 LINEUPS DFS : FanDuel | DraftKings | Yahoo
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Point of deviation: -4.0
Choose popularity: 68%
Category: Favorite Value
The Saints are the favorites here, but enough people are picking an upset Falcons to make New Orleans an attractive choice. New Orleans must win to qualify for the playoffs. Atlanta beat them earlier in the year in New Orleans, which could also factor into the crowd selection rates here.
Fun fact: The Saints have a winning record (11-8) in Atlanta since forming the NFC South in 2002, including a 6-1 record as a favorite.
TeamRankings football choices:
Choice of survivor pool | Pick ’em Pool Picks | NFL betting choices
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Point of deviation: -7.0
Choose popularity: 77%
Category: Favorite at a reasonable price
Dallas and Philadelphia are both in the playoffs, and Dallas won the NFC East. Philadelphia is locked in the # 6 or # 7 seed of the NFC. Dallas could improve to the No.2 seed, but it would take more upheaval for that to happen. The Cowboys are pretty much a touchdown favorite right now, but enough home crowd gives the Eagles a chance there is value in staying in Dallas.
Several key Eagles players are likely out for Saturday’s game after testing positive for COVID, including OL Jason Kelce, TE Dallas Goedert and DL Fletcher Cox. Considering that they’ve already clinched a playoff berth and there’s little they can do to improve their positioning, the Eagles aren’t likely to rush the players.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Point of deviation: +4.0
Choose popularity: 11%
Category: Reverse value bet
The Packers are a very popular choice against Detroit, which is not surprising given that Green Bay is 13-3 and the Lions are 2-13-1. But the Packers have already clinched the NFC seed, so there’s no guarantee they’ll be playing their starters throughout the game.
The betting market adjusted the line until Detroit was seen as having a legitimate chance of winning. With low popularity, the Lions are very valuable if you’re looking for an upset where the better team will likely treat it more like a preseason second-half game.
FANTASY WEEK 18 RANKING (PPR & STANDARD):
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kicker
Carolina Panthers to Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Point of deviation: +8.0
Choose popularity: 2%
Category: Reverse value bet
We wouldn’t normally include an eight-point underdog as a choice recommendation, but it’s the last week of the season. If you’re lagging behind and need a big shake up to get yourself up to your pool leaderboard, it’s worth considering the Panthers.
Carolina is extremely unpopular. Only Jets (as a 16-point underdog) are chosen less frequently. About 83% of the public chooses Tampa Bay with the spread, which is the most popular choice of the week in spread pools. But we estimate the Panthers’ chances of winning at 26%. With so few entries choosing them, you are probably one of the few (in a large pool) or perhaps the only one to choose them.
The Buccaneers have a few key offensive players, including RB Leonard Fournette and WR Chris Godwin. They are not playing their best at the moment. The Panthers should have a good defensive performance, but if you have to throw a Hail Mary, this is the best game to try.
Week 18 NFL survivor pool picks: most popular picks
It’s the last week for the survivor pools unless they extend into the playoffs. It means the future is now and there are no savings for a different week. If the starters have gotten this far, they’ve probably used most of the good teams.
Here are the most popular picks so far for week 18.
- Tennessee Titans (36% popularity) at the Houston Texans
- Washington football team (14% popularity) at the New York Giants
- Baltimore Ravens (10% popularity) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- New Orleans Saints (7% popularity) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Buffalo Bills (4% popularity) vs. New York Jets
You can check out our Week 18 Selection Analysis and get our personalized Selection Recommendations if you’re still competing in a Survivor Pool.
Get all of our week 18 NFL picks
TeamRankings Football Pick ’em Picks is the only product that gives you the choices, tools, and analysis you need to maximize your advantage in NFL Selection Pools. It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance of winning your straight-up, points spread, or trust pool.
From a strategic point of view, game theory is a fundamental aspect of winning selection pools. In short, to win a pick ’em pool, you have to score points that your opponents lack. This means you need to identify unpopular choices that are worth a calculated bet and avoid trendy upset choices that are not worth the risk. Our product does all of this math for you, 71% of our subscribers claim to have won a prize in soccer selection contests.
If you would like to learn more about pick ’em football pool strategy, you can also check out our free strategy articles for winning pick’ em football pools. Good luck in your pools this week!
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