NFL: Kansas City Chiefs in Crisis

The Kansas City Chiefs started the 2019 season as one of the most promising AFC teams after MVP Patrick Mahomes’ first full season. And after four games you saw these laurels of credit confirmed. All four games were won – some of them clearly. Since then, however, the balance has been sobering.

Since the Colts game in week 5, the chiefs are 2-4. They suffered four losses in 2018 in the complete regular season! So one can certainly speak of a crisis, at least small, that the chiefs are going through.

Even though they had once again escaped a possible disaster – a potentially serious knee injury from Mahomes. Ultimately, he missed only two and a half games against Denver with his kneecap dislocated and returned last weekend against the Tennessee Titans.

In his absence, however, he won in Denver and somewhat surprisingly in week 10 against the Minnesota Vikings. It was lost to the Green Bay Packers, of course, but that was not surprising against a well-placed Aaron Rodgers, and even this game turned out to be closer than expected.

Backup Matt Moore did a very decent job in Mahomes’ absence, although it was clear to everyone that the superstar is needed if you want to reach for the stars again this year. Against the Titans, Mahomes promptly reminded everyone of his extra class. He threw for 446 yards (36/50) and three touchdowns (81.2 total QBR). The MVP came back impressively, even if it looked a bit rusty in a few moments.

Chiefs: Mahomes is almost the old man again

Nevertheless: Mahomes was basically the old man in the first game since the injury. Apart from the fact that he limited himself to passing and made no attempt to run. A precaution after one or the other leg and foot injury in the past weeks.

Despite Mahomes’ gala performance and that of his receivers – Tyreek Hill (11 REC, 157 YDS, TD), Travis Kelce (7 REC, 75 YDS, TD) and Mecole Hardman (REC, 63 YDS, TD) all caught touchdowns and carried the game the chiefs – Kansas City surprisingly lost to Tennessee in a shootout. An unquestionably surprising result that should create some worry lines in Kansas City when it was created.

Throughout the game, the highly favored chiefs went one buck after the other. Among other things, they received nine sentences for 80 yards. The final phase was particularly chaotic with an unsuccessful field goal attempt in which Holder Dustin Colquitt fired the ball into nothing, giving the Titans the ball again in an almost hopeless situation. They used this for a fast touchdown drive and then even a Chiefs field goal attempt was blocked.

But was that a slip or rather confirmation of a trend? The Chiefs had recently shown a clear increase defensively and had given their pass rush a noticeable boost. They had collected nine sacks against the Broncos, and five against the Packers and Rodgers.

Against the Titans – not exactly known for an elite offensive line these days – the own approach was the problem, if one can believe edge rusher Frank Clark – a sign of disappointment so far since his engagement from Seattle -: “We played rather soft in the end. Their offense was much more aggressive than we did defensively. That led to a win for them. “

In addition, “we honestly didn’t expect” that quarterback Ryan Tannehill would play with his feet, Clark also admitted.

Chiefs Pass Defense Top 5 in the NFL

However, it must be stated that the pass defense was not that badly presented this season. According to Football Outsiders it ranks fifth in the NFL (-8.1 percent DVOA). Passport defense wasn’t the problem against Tennessee per se.

The run defense, however, did: Tennessee ran for 225 yards, Derrick Henry alone got 188 (23 CAR) and scored, among other things, a 68-yard touchdown. A common thread can also be seen here. The Chiefs are the second worst run defense in the NFL (7.1 percent DVOA), only the Panthers (14.2 percent DVOA) are worse this season.

Accordingly, the four defeats can be partly attributed to it. 180 rushing yards were allowed against the Colts (13:19), 192 against the Texans (24:31) and 118 rushing yards against the Packers. Running defense is a not insignificant factor and a problem that was not only observed in one game.

Head coach Andy Reid had a simple explanation for the bankruptcy against Tennessee: “We were in a position to close the game that we couldn’t do. I’m responsible for that. And then we were too sloppy.”

And even if their own offense has not closed the game this time, it is, especially through the air, the non-plus ultra of this league (53 percent DVOA). Thanks to Mahomes and numerous offensive weapons that are second to none.

Nevertheless, even this unit does not seem to be constantly able to constantly eliminate the enormous defensive deficits, and then one has to speak again of a possibly serious problem. In principle, the offense cannot afford to leave points behind, which has also happened several times recently. Against the Titans, where too many drives ended in field goals. Apart from the fact that even in the modern NFL it’s not a good recipe anyway to have a shootout every week.

Kansas City Chiefs: First-Round-Bye unwahrscheinlich

What does this mean for the further outlook for the season in KC? It is no secret that defenses are much more susceptible to fluctuations in performance than offenses, and if you look at the last four games of the chiefs, this is exactly the conclusion. But Kansas City is defensively capable of such blatant crashes this year that it could end the Arrowhead season sometime in January.

If the defense were reasonably constant in the lower mediocrity, it would be another discussion. But the enormous lows put their own offense, as good as it is, under immense pressure.

In the table, Kansas City is still ahead of the rest in a weak AFC West. You should still reach the playoffs, although the Oakland Raiders are now only half a game behind. There are two games for the Los Angeles Chargers, but there are still two direct duels here – the first on Monday night in Mexico (live on DAZN). The chiefs still have the division crown in their own hands and have won their two intra-division games so far.

It looks different in the AFC playoffs. With 6-4, KC is clearly behind New England (8-1) and Baltimore (7-2). The Ravens have already been beaten, a trip to Foxborough is still pending. Nevertheless, Reid and Co. have to be prepared to open the playoffs on the wildcard weekend, unlike last year.

And the hope of having the AFC playoffs run again by Arrowhead and ideally receiving the Patriots, Ravens, Texans or whoever in the championship game in Kansas City instead of having to go abroad for such a game is very likely will soon be buried for good. For this, and this knowledge was delivered in the first half of the season, the defense is simply too bad in its outliers.

NFL: The rest of the Kansas City Chiefs program

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