After weeks of rising figures, the province of Groningen showed a fall in the number of infections a week ago. In a week, 179 per 100,000 Groningen residents were infected with the virus. The decline has continued to around 150.
Add that to a reproduction number of less than 0.9 and virologist Bert Niesters of the UMCG is moderately optimistic. ‘The North is the safest place in our country, with the exception of the region around Emmen. In Amsterdam and the rest of the Randstad it is really still terrible. So please all stay here ‘, he calls on Noorderlingen.
The way down is still a long time
But no matter how safe the North may be, everything is relative. The fact is that more than a hundred Groningen infections are added every day. ‘Regardless of whether it stabilizes, you should indeed not count yourself rich,’ warns Niesters. “It’s still a long way down. Even with an R-value of 0.8, it takes three to four weeks for the infection rate to drop to an acceptable level.
His UMCG colleague Peter van der Voort, head of intensive care, is slowly but surely seeing light at the end of the tunnel. It will not be as extreme as this spring. Yet for hospitals it will take months before this wave is over. ‘Then we will already be well into 2021. Then we might get a stable situation,’ says Van der Voort.
65 ic patients at peak second wave
In intensive care, the peak of the second corona wave will come ‘sometime next week’, according to Van der Voort. It is difficult to say exactly when. At that time there are about 65 corona patients on the ICs of the hospitals in the Northern Netherlands, ten percent of the national total. According to Van der Voort, it ‘works quite well to run a large amount of regular care in addition to this.’
Still, the pressure in his department can change from day to day. ‘It may just be that two or three patients are added. Then you are immediately in need and you feel that pressure for a moment. That could be gone a day later. ‘
Patients from the North bring peace
Interestingly enough, the covid wards in the hospital are providing more peace of mind now that there are more patients from the North. ‘Last time almost no one came from their own region. This creates a lot of extra dynamics and pressure due to transports. Now there is no longer a bus with six patients arriving at the same time. ‘
We often talk about ‘the numbers’. But keep in mind that there is a lot of suffering behind every number
Despite the fact that the hospital can better cope with corona care, it remains a very tough task, says Van der Voort. ‘It is horrible for the people who are here. Every patient is one too many. And it is also a very intense event for their families. We often talk about ‘the numbers’. But keep in mind that there is a lot of suffering behind every number. ‘
Coming waves become less high
With the peak in sight, Van der Voort can also look ahead carefully. Because once this wave is over, hospital staff have to relax and prepare for the waves to come. These are probably becoming less and less high, estimate Niesters and Van der Voort.
“But that line will not be zero for the next two years,” expects the IC head. ‘That means that we have about 5 to 15 corona patients on ventilation. Within that bandwidth. ‘
Also read:
– Already 200 corona patients from other regions in northern hospitals
– Break in the trend: North corona figures give hope for the first time in weeks
– Follow our live blog for the latest corona news from Groningen
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