NEX Encounters Toxic Gross sales Pressure – Cuts Earnings Value Falls Beneath Thanachart’s New Goal of 4.50 Baht – Hoonsmart

HoonSmart.com >> Who made the proper prediction? “Nex Level” (NEX) falls 65% from Might 1-23, a serious shareholder was compelled to promote Analysts lower revenue forecasts Thanachart Securities lowered the goal value to 4.50 baht from the unique 15 baht, revenue anticipated as excessive as 1,355 million baht Not too long ago, Subsequent signed an MOU with DAYUN to supply and distribute Mini SUVs in Thailand solely.

On Might 23, 2024, NEX inventory value continued to fall throughout the day, reaching a low of two.86 baht earlier than rising to shut at 3.16 baht, falling 0.90 baht or -22.17% with gross commerce worth of 1,934.04 million baht from the start. Because of this, main shareholders who used it as collateral have been compelled to use for a mortgage to purchase (margin) shares (Pressure Sale), together with analysts who wanted the revenue estimates and decrease their goal costs.

Thanachart Securities downgraded its advice on NEX shares from “Purchase” to “Maintain” and lower its revenue forecast by 38%, 58%, and 60% in 2024-2026, together with decreasing its goal value to 4.50 baht from earlier than for 15 baht

The reason being the disappointing web revenue Q1/2024 and likewise beginning to see extra ongoing uncertainty. from prospects outdoors the corporate’s group After nearly all of gross sales in 2023 will come from bus providers operated by firms within the group Together with the lower in demand for electrical autos business automobile (CEV) available in the market, gross sales assumptions have been lowered to 2,000 items/12 months in 2024-2026 from the preliminary estimates of three,000 items, 4,000 items, and 4,500 items seeing value competitors within the business dangers of downward motion in costs EV world wide. This might have an effect on NEX’s revenue margin and account receivables, which elevated to five,600 million baht within the first quarter from 2,200 million baht within the earlier quarter. This exhibits that almost all gross sales firstly of the 12 months weren’t paid in full.

Nevertheless, the share value has fallen to 12 instances PE in 2024, based on Thanachart Securities’ new progress estimates.

“NEX’s inventory value modified considerably after asserting first quarter earnings in the event that they check with info from the SEC Workplace. On the finish of March 2024 Discover the quantity of shares within the excessive margin account was 401 million shares or 19.8% of the full variety of shares. He wonders if he has been compelled to promote shares which might be used as collateral. That is in all probability the principle purpose why the inventory value is falling a lot. Though the worth has recovered slightly However we imagine {that a} excessive focus ratio remains to be a threat that there will likely be a big change in costs sooner or later,” mentioned Thanachart Securities.

Past Securities, an organization within the NEX group, maintains a BUY advice at a base worth of 17.8 baht. It believes that NEX may be very fascinating. Based mostly on 1) buying and selling at 6.1x this 12 months’s estimated P/E, in comparison with 20-30x P/E for comparable EV world averages, 2) stronger quarterly web revenue pattern sequentially from Bt49mn in quarter 1/2024 to 100 million baht within the 2nd quarter, 600 million baht within the third quarter and 700 million baht within the 4th quarter, primarily based on orders to ship secure electrical autos within the subsequent quarter and three) progress traits concerning EV manufacturing Gross sales all through -time secured to Absolute Meeting (AAB), a producing facility owned by NEX (40%) and EA (60%).

“Ready for a long-term sale settlement to finish depressed share value.” After the inventory value went up final week, the NEX inventory value went down once more at present. As buyers are very involved about EV’s earnings progress outlook, we imagine that buyers must be affected person in order that NEX can keep its steady gross sales promise in each the brief and long run -time. In order that buyers can regain confidence in revenue progress once more,” mentioned Past Securities.

From fox looking to hibernation gross sales technique, beginning June 24, NEX is anticipated to vary its manufacturing and gross sales technique to concentrate on. Mid-range, high-end “demand” is outpacing low-end business self-driving EV gross sales. Within the months of June-July Whole secure business EV orders to return will likely be between 3,000-5,000 items this 12 months, with annual orders 40,000-60,000 Orders will likely be primarily based on 5-10 12 months contracts.

The explanations for NEX’s web revenue falling within the interval 2023-1/2024 have been as a consequence of disruptions in manufacturing (by the AAB manufacturing facility with 40% possession of NEX), advertising and marketing (delay of greater than 1,000 e-buses) and gross sales. Delays on new EV orders) Nevertheless, the NEX technique is at U-turn. by altering route By collaborating with many companions in 2024, together with 1. On February 24, he delivered an digital truck to Amphon Meals. 2. Final March, bought tractors to PTTGC subsidiary, GC Advertising & Procurement 3. April – finish of 12 months delivered 423kWh electrical tractor to Montri Transport. which is the principle logistics subcontractor of Tipco Asphalt (TASCO).

So far, NEX has repurchased 26,277,700 shares, representing 1.3% of the full shares. With a complete worth of 252.08 million baht, which doesn’t exceed NEX’s authentic share repurchase funds introduced on 10 November 2024.

Bualuang Securities sees NEX shares buying and selling at a 2024 PE of 25.2 instances, seeing that Thailand’s transition to business electrical autos stays an vital pattern. However we should anticipate extra details about NEX’s progress prospects earlier than revising our steering and value goal. After Q1, Q1 web revenue was decrease than anticipated at 184 million baht, primarily as a result of gross revenue margin was decrease than anticipated and associated firms reported losses. Count on a small revenue share in Q2

There may be additionally some uncertainty concerning the supply of EV buses to Thai Smile. has lowered its estimate of electrical automobile deliveries this 12 months to simply 3,000 items, divided into 800 EV pickups, 2,200 minibuses and tractors (vans), thus reducing its primary 12 months revenue forecast. 2024 decreased considerably from 1,367 million baht to 703 million baht.

Mr. Kanis Srivajiraprapa Chief Govt Officer of Subsequent Level Firm disclosed that the corporate had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to spend money on establishing a small electrical automobile or Mini SUV meeting line of DAYUN Firm a- solely in Thailand. Able to open for sellers to market and promote further DAYUN autos. However the inside is spacious It has trendy facilities. It additionally has unbiased suspension with 4-wheel springs to extend street traction effectivity. The beginning value is anticipated to be lower than 490,000 baht to enter the market of scholars and full-time employees.

DAYUN Group Firm is a Chinese language firm. which primarily focuses on the manufacturing and meeting of business autos It has began making small electrical automobiles. A registered capital of greater than 5,000 million baht is inexpensive, which may promote greater than 20,000 automobiles, This cooperation will focus primarily on the manufacturing and meeting of Mini SUVs, with the purpose of specializing in the ECO CAR group in Thailand lastly. Nearly 100,000 autos are registered.

“NEX is a pacesetter within the business electrical automobile market. We have now expertise in each batteries and upkeep. This initiative will assist to enter the small financial electrical automobile market along with DAYUN by increasing the group’s electrical automobile manufacturing base. Together with coming into new markets to additional strengthen the group of firms. It’ll additionally assist Thailand be a part of the Inexperienced Society sooner At present, the corporate has already imported prototype automobiles to check in Thailand. It’s anticipated to have the ability to be imported for distribution inside the third quarter of this 12 months and can proceed to increase into manufacturing in Thailand. Together with the introduction of different fashions of electrical autos to strengthen the group sooner or later,” mentioned Mr. Kanis.