Karsten Friis, senior researcher and head of the research group Security and Defense at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI), answers about Russia’s new tactics in Ukraine.
After Russia withdrew from the areas around the capital Kyiv, it has been expected that the Russians will intensify their attacks in the east of the country. According to Oleksandr Motuzanyk, spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Russia has now almost completed preparations for an offensive there. It reports Interfax Ukraine.
– There is an accumulation of forces around the area, and there Ukraine has very strong forces standing. They have been there since 2014. But there is enough hope from Russia to be able to surround some of the Ukrainian forces and weaken them over time. We do not know yet, but there are many who speculate, says Friis.
– In addition, we have the strip between Crimea and to this area, east of Crimea, which Russia in practice has control of now, but we can expect that they will also consolidate control there.
When asked what it means for the progress of the war whether the Russians manage to gain control of these areas, Friis answers:
– That is what the whole course of the war is decided by. At some point, it will stop. Either by one of the parties having won, or by exhaustion. Ukraine has repulsed Russian attacks surprisingly well. But the question is still over time, whether they will manage it in this whole area. Russia is a major military power, no matter how poorly organized or demotivated they are, so there are limits to how much Ukraine will manage, and how much human suffering they will have to bear at the same time, he says, adding:
– It is this development here, how things are going in the coming weeks and months, that will determine how this war ends.
– What does it take for Ukraine to continue this pressure?
– One is that Ukraine has a will, and is fighting an existential battle, while Russians have been sent there without knowing that they will go there once, so the motivation is probably varying among the Russian troops, says Friis, and adds that Ukraine has also received Western arms support.
– They can defend themselves well, but can not do much offensively to repel the Russians with the weapons they receive. On Russia’s side, it is also the sanctions that weaken Russia, at least in theory, and that can make it more difficult to carry out this war in the long run.
Friis mentions that there are, however, gaps in the sanctions, in that oil and gas are still exported, which is a major source of income for Russia.
Friis also mentions negotiations as a possible decisive outcome.
– But that presupposes that both parties are convinced that there is nothing more to pick up on the battlefield, and I unfortunately do not think we are there yet. Ukraine is fighting an existential battle, and will not give up more than they have to, you understand that.
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