– We’ve never been close to these prices before. Even last year, the yearly average was way above normal. Now that figure has tripled, says electrical analyst Tor Reier Lilleholt of the firm Volue Insight to NTB.
New Year’s electricity prices are already clear with relatively high certainty. Therefore, it is also possible for the analyst to calculate the average price for the whole of 2022. This is how it looks in the five price zones Norway is divided into (average price for 2021 in brackets):
- NO1 – Eastern Norway: NOK 1.94 per kWh (NOK 0.76)
- NO2 – Southern and Southwestern Norway: NOK 2.13 per kWh (NOK 0.76)
- NO3 – Central Norway with Sunnmøre: NOK 0.43 per kWh (NOK 0.42)
- NO4 – Northern Norway: NOK 0.25 per kWh (NOK 0.36)
- NO5 – Bergen area: NOK 1.94 per kWh (NOK 0.75)
If you compare to 2020, the price difference becomes even more enormous. Prices were relatively low that year, averaging just under NOK 0.1 per kWh across the country.
The electric year 2022
Lilleholt points out that prices were already high in early 2022 after Putin limited gas exports to Europe during the coming autumn.
“They then continued to rise throughout the year and reached their peak in August-September, when there was also an extremely low level in Norwegian reservoirs,” he says.
During the autumn it started to rain in Norway and at the same time the gas stocks in Europe were filled up, so that the prices dropped again. And then there was another uptick in the December cold.
– There is no doubt that the situation in Europe, with the war in Ukraine, has had a tremendous impact. The energy market across Europe is unbalanced, says Lilleholt.
Price almost halved in the South next year
Next year, experts predict that electricity prices in southern Norway will be lower than this year. Looking at market expectations, the average price will be around NOK 1.5 per kWh in 2023 in the south. However, Lilleholt believes it will be even lower.
– We think the average price for 2023 will be around NOK 1.1 per kWh in Southern Norway. There is now more water in the tanks. However, there will also be a historically high price next year. We are not back to normal yet, she says.
Northern Norway will probably have to prepare for higher electricity prices next year than this year.
– We want to see more equalization of prices. In the north they have used up some of their resources in warehouses and have sent some electricity for export. Nor have there been extreme amounts of snow yet, says the electricity expert.
(©NTB)
