Xinhua News Agency, Washington, January 1Telenews analysis: What are the new features of the recent outbreak of the 20 million confirmed cases of new crown in the United States
Xinhua News Agency reporter Tan Jingjing Yang Shilong
On the first day of 2021, the cumulative number of confirmed new crown cases in the United States exceeded 20 million, and the cumulative number of deaths exceeded 347,000.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 10 million on November 9, 2020. It took less than a month from 10 million to over 15 million on December 8, and it took only 24 days to go from 15 million to over 20 million. The growth rate reached a new high.
Recently, core indicators such as confirmed cases, deaths, and hospitalizations of the new crown in the United States have continued to rise; at the same time, three states have confirmed the detection of cases of mutant new crown virus reported in the UK. Many authoritative American epidemiologists said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the current situation in the United States is worrying. There may be a large increase in confirmed cases and deaths after the Christmas and New Year holidays. It is expected to wait until after the middle of this year. Only when a relatively large proportion of the population completes the new crown vaccination will the epidemic be significantly improved.
Three factors of recent “surge wave”
According to data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on December 31, 2020, on the 30th, the United States reported more than 230,000 new confirmed cases of new crowns and more than 3,700 new deaths, which is another high since mid-December. . According to the latest data of the National Epidemic Tracking Project initiated by the US “Atlantic Monthly”, as of December 31, 2020, there are more than 125,000 hospitalized patients with new crowns in the United States, a record high since the outbreak. At present, the medical systems in many parts of the United States are under tremendous pressure, and the ability to receive medical treatment is almost at the limit.
Zhang Zuofeng, deputy dean of the School of Public Health and Distinguished Professor of Epidemiology at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that there are three main reasons for the recent “surge wave”: First, the increase in gatherings among families and friends during holidays has increased. The spread of the virus; the second is the relaxation of people’s thinking and the “fatigue” of the epidemic, which increases the risk of infection; the third is that the United States has found cases of mutated new coronavirus infection reported in the United Kingdom. This mutated virus is more contagious and may already exist A certain range of community transmission.
Following the discovery of the first case of infection with the mutated new coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom in Colorado on December 29, 2020, California and Florida have successively found cases of mutated new coronavirus infection. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, believes that this mutated new coronavirus may have appeared in multiple states.
Stanley Perlman, a professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa in the United States, told Xinhua News Agency that the mutated new coronavirus is more contagious and may cause more infections, and more will follow. Of deaths.
After the holiday, there may be more violent “surge wave”
Although the recent average number of newly diagnosed cases in the United States in a single day is about 180,000, and the average number of new deaths in a single day is about 2,200, which is already at a high level, experts believe that the “true face” of the epidemic is even more severe. Zhang Zuofeng said that during the Christmas and New Year holidays, the reporting system in various places is not sound, and there may be a backlog of data. After the holiday, you may see a large increase in the incidence of new crowns and mortality.
In the face of the risk of intensified transmission of the epidemic during the holiday season in the United States, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently issued recommendations calling on people to postpone their travel plans, stay at home as much as possible, hold virtual gatherings with family and friends who are not together, and give virtual gifts to each other; emphasizing that travel will increase At the risk of contracting and spreading the new crown virus, staying at home during the holidays is the best way to protect yourself and others. However, there are still a large number of people traveling during the holidays.
Fauci said that the current US epidemic is beginning to be “out of control” in all aspects. A large number of people travel during the holiday season, which is likely to lead to an increase in the “surge wave” of existing cases, which is worrying. He believes that the epidemic in January this year may be worse than in December last year.
According to data released by the National Epidemic Tracking Project on December 31, 2020, there were 76,580 new deaths from the new crown in the United States in December, setting the highest number of new deaths in a single month since the outbreak. The latest forecast data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that by January 23, 2021, the cumulative number of deaths from new crowns in the United States may reach 383,000 to 424,000.
Vaccination schedule is behind expectations
The US Food and Drug Administration approved two emergency use applications for new crown vaccines in December last year. One was jointly developed by Pfizer and the German Biotech Company, and the other was developed by Modena. At present, these two vaccines have been distributed across the United States, giving priority to medical staff and people living in nursing homes and other long-term care institutions.
The person in charge of the U.S. new crown vaccine and drug research plan “Action Warp Speed” previously stated that the United States plans to complete the vaccination of 20 million people by the end of December 2020. However, vaccine data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website shows that as of December 30, the number of people receiving the first dose of vaccine in the United States is about 2.794 million. Some experts and government officials criticized the US vaccination schedule for being far below expectations.
Perlman said that the current delay in vaccination in the United States is partly due to various problems in the production and distribution links, and the high requirements for cold chain transportation of vaccines.
Zhang Zuofeng said that in the early stages of the US vaccine plan, the link between all links has not been fully formed, so the progress is behind the plan, and it is expected that the speed will gradually increase in the later stage. If by June, 50% to 60% of the people in the United States have completed the vaccination, then American social life is expected to gradually return to normal.
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Source: Xinhua News Agency
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