Newly Discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 Has a 1% chance of Impacting Earth in 2032, NASA Says
A newly discovered asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a small but notable chance of impacting earth in 2032, according to NASA officials. scientists estimate the probability of impact to be just over 1%, sparking both curiosity and caution among astronomers and the public alike.”We are not worried at all, due to this 99% probability that it will not impact us,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. “But we deserve to pay attention.”
The asteroid, first detected last month by a telescope in Chile, measures between 40 and 100 meters (130 to 330 feet) in diameter. While its size may seem modest, an impact from such a space rock could cause meaningful damage. According to the european Space Agency, Earth is struck by an asteroid of this size every few thousand years, making it a rare but potentially catastrophic event.
Tracking the Asteroid’s Path
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Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, but scientists are closely monitoring its trajectory. As it orbits the Sun, astronomers hope to refine their understanding of its path, potentially reducing the risk of impact to zero. “As the asteroid’s trajectory around the Sun becomes better understood, there are good chances that the risk for Earth can be reduced to zero,” Chodas explained.
The asteroid will gradually disappear from view in the coming months, but untill then, some of the world’s most powerful telescopes will continue to track it. Once out of sight,it won’t be visible again until it passes near Earth’s orbit in 2028.
A Close Encounter on Christmas day
2024 YR4 made its closest approach to Earth on Christmas Day 2024, coming within approximately 800,000 kilometers (500,000 miles)—about twice the distance of the Moon. It was discovered two days later, on December 27, by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).Scientists are now reviewing sky maps from 2016, when the asteroid is believed to have previously approached Earth. “If we can find the space rock in images from that time,we should be able to determine whether or not it will impact Earth,” Chodas told The associated Press. “If we do not find that detection,the probability of impact will simply be modified slowly as we add more observations.”
What Happens Next?
The potential impact date is set for December 22, 2032, but it’s too early to predict where the asteroid might land if it were to collide with Earth. For now,2024 YR4 tops the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk list,underscoring the need for continued vigilance.
The good news? According to NASA, no other known large asteroid currently has a probability of impact greater than 1%.
Key Facts About Asteroid 2024 YR4
| Attribute | Details |
|————————–|—————————————————————————–|
| Designation | 2024 YR4 |
| Size | 40 to 100 meters (130 to 330 feet) in diameter |
| Revelation Date | December 27,2024 |
| closest Approach | 800,000 km (500,000 miles) on December 25,2024 |
| Impact Probability | Just over 1% |
| Potential Impact Date| December 22,2032 |
While the odds of impact remain low,the discovery of 2024 YR4 serves as a reminder of the importance of planetary defense efforts. As scientists continue to monitor this space rock, the world watches with bated breath, hopeful that the risk will diminish with further observations.
For more updates on 2024 YR4 and other near-Earth objects, stay tuned to NASA’s official announcements and the European Space Agency’s asteroid tracking programs.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Rare 1% Chance of Earth impact in 2032 Sparks Global Attention
A newly identified asteroid, named 2024 YR4, has captured the interest of scientists and the public alike due to its slim but important chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. According to NASA, the probability of impact stands at just over 1%, prompting astronomers to closely monitor its trajectory. While experts emphasize there is no immediate cause for alarm, the discovery underscores the importance of planetary defense efforts and ongoing vigilance in tracking near-earth objects.
Tracking the Asteroid’s path
Currently, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, but its path around the Sun is being meticulously studied. Scientists are optimistic that further observations will refine its trajectory and reduce the risk of impact to zero. “as the asteroid’s orbit becomes better understood, there are good chances that the risk for Earth can be eliminated,” said Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. The asteroid will soon disappear from view but is expected to reappear near Earth’s orbit in 2028,providing another opportunity for observation.
A Close Encounter on Christmas Day
The asteroid made its closest approach to Earth on December 25,2024,coming within approximately 800,000 kilometers (500,000 miles)—about twice the distance of the Moon. It was discovered two days later by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS).Scientists are now reviewing archival sky maps from 2016 to identify earlier appearances of the asteroid. “if we can locate it in older images, we’ll gain valuable insights into its future path,” Chodas explained.This ancient data will play a crucial role in refining impact probability calculations.
What Happens Next?
The potential impact date is set for December 22,2032,but it remains too early to predict the exact location of a possible collision. For now, 2024 YR4 tops the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk list, highlighting the need for continued monitoring. Despite the low odds, NASA reassures the public that no other known large asteroid currently poses a higher risk of impact. The discovery serves as a reminder of the importance of international collaboration in planetary defense and the ongoing efforts to safeguard Earth from potential threats.
Key Facts About Asteroid 2024 YR4
| Attribute | Details |
|---|---|
| Designation | 2024 YR4 |
| Size | 40 to 100 meters (130 to 330 feet) in diameter |
| Discovery Date | December 27, 2024 |
| Closest Approach | 800,000 km (500,000 miles) on December 25, 2024 |
| Impact Probability | Just over 1% |
| Potential Impact Date | December 22, 2032 |
While the likelihood of impact remains low, the discovery of 2024 YR4 highlights the critical need for vigilance in tracking near-Earth objects. As scientists continue their observations, the world watches with cautious optimism, hopeful that further data will eliminate any risk. For updates on this and other celestial objects, follow NASA’s official announcements and the European space Agency’s asteroid tracking programs.
