[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Go In-won = Before the opening of the New York stock market on the 22nd (local time), major stock index futures prices are falling all at once.
Amid expectations of an active interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising sharply, leading to a selling trend in technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates. Wariness ahead of major companies’ quarterly earnings announcements is also pressuring investment sentiment.
As of 8:05 a.m. Eastern time, on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), E-mini S&P 500 futures recorded 5,868.50, down 27.75 points (0.47%) from the previous day, and E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 110.00 points (0.54%). It showed 20,409.50. E-mini Dow futures were down 184.00 points (0.43%) at 42,993.00.
The interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.222% earlier today, temporarily exceeding 4.2% after exceeding 4.1% the previous day. This is because the market has readjusted its expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut due to economic indicators showing the U.S. economy is doing well. The 2-year interest rate, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, rose 1.4bp (1bp = 0.01% point) to 4.039%.
The market, which had expected a 50bp interest rate cut before the release of the US non-farm payrolls report in September, now reflects an 89% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bp at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November. The 50bp forecast disappeared, and the freeze forecast rose to 11.0%.
Amid expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut, stock experts believe that whether the New York stock market will continue its bull market this week will depend on companies’ earnings announcements. This week alone, about 20% (approximately 114) of S&P 500 companies will disclose their earnings.
“This earnings season will provide useful information about the U.S. economy, consumer spending, and the performance of non-megacap companies,” said analysts at BCA Research. It was predicted that
According to financial information company LSEG, the net profit of S&P 500 companies excluding the energy sector is expected to have risen 6.5% in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, and if energy is included, it is expected to have risen 4%.
The previous day, the major indices of the New York stock market retreated from their all-time highs and ended the day on a mixed note. As fatigue has built up following the continued rise for the past six weeks in a row, profit-taking movements have become stronger. However, only the Nasdaq index closed slightly higher, thanks to Nvidia rising more than 4% and breaking its all-time high.
The U.S. stock market has continued its bull market in recent weeks thanks to strong economic indicators showing the U.S. economy’s good health, but experts expect market volatility to increase due to corporate earnings announcements, new economic indicators, and the U.S. presidential election, which is two weeks away.
Among the companies expected to report earnings this week, Tesla and Amazon are attracting particular attention. If Tesla and Amazon also report excellent performance following Netflix last week, overall investment sentiment will be strengthened and Nasdaq, which has recently had a relatively slow rise among the three major indices, may set the stage for a further rise.
In addition, this week, indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which will measure the state of the US manufacturing and service industries, orders for durable goods, and the number of new unemployment claims, which will measure the health of the job market, are scheduled to be announced.
The stock price of General Motors (GM), an American automobile company, is falling slightly. On this day, GM disclosed third-quarter sales and net profit that exceeded Wall Street expectations and also raised its performance guidance for this year. GM’s stock price, which rose more than 2% immediately after the earnings announcement, turned downward again ahead of the opening bell.
▲Tesla (TSLA), which is scheduled to announce its earnings this week, is also down 0.7% in its stock price before the market opens. Investment bank Jefferies raised the company’s 12-month stock price target by $30 to $195, up from the previous price target, and maintained a ‘hold’ investment opinion. Although the target price was raised, it is still about 10% lower than the current stock price. Tesla’s stock price has continued to decline due to disappointment following the unveiling of the unmanned self-driving taxi ‘Robotaxi’ on the 11th. Due to slowing sales in China, expectations for third quarter performance are not high. Tesla announces its last quarter earnings immediately after the market closes on the 23rd.
On the other hand, ▲NVIDIA (NVDA), whose stock price rose more than 4% the previous day and broke an all-time high, rose 0.3% before the market opened, exceeding $144.
