Only 40 of the more than 3,200 counties in the United States are considered high-transmission areas by the CDC, the health agency said Tuesday. That’s 1.2%.
Great news, right?
It depends on how and from where you look at it. That 40-county number is more than double the number of high-impact COVID counties the CDC listed in its report two weeks ago. And 23 of those 40 counties now considered hotspots by the CDC are in New York state, the latest data set shows.
Virtually the entire state is now in orange and yellow (high, medium), while only the southern area of the state, including all five New York City boroughs, is in green. That excludes Westchester County, which now has a medium risk assessment from the CDC.
Nearly the entire state was green in a CDC report issued less than three weeks ago.
The numbers are calculated using data through April 21, which means transmission of COVID-19, which has been on the rise in New York and several other states in recent weeks, is likely higher than reflected in the latest CDC map (see below).
The CDC uses a community alert system to track the impact of COVID on a weekly basis.
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Who is to blame for the latest spike? The relaxation of COVID restrictions, such as mask and vaccine mandates, among other factors, are contributing factors, according to experts.
More shocking, perhaps, have been the two COVID variants that descended from the original omicron strain: BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.12. Early findings indicate those strains could be up to 27% higher than BA.2, which was said to be up to 60% more contagious than the original Omicron strain that led to unprecedented rates of COVID cases and hospitalizations in the United States. US and much of the world earlier this year.
It is probably no coincidence that the first subvariant, BA.2.12.1, is spreading much faster in the New York region than it is nationally.
According to the CDC, that subvariant became locally dominant a week ago and represents approximately 52.3% of all COVID-19 circulating in the region, which for agency purposes also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the Islands. Virgins. At the time, its prevalence in the US was estimated to be around 19%.
As of Tuesday, BA.2.12.1 accounts for about 58.1% of New York region cases, and could account for as much as 71.5%, CDC data shows, while its national prevalence has risen to about 29% of all cases.
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The CDC updates its variant data weekly.
A month ago, that national number was 3.3%, the CDC noted. And the proportion of BA.2.12.1 cases in the New York region was estimated to be about 12% at the time.
Both increases once again illustrate the fast, yet expected, pace at which the main Omicron variant and its sub-variants have usurped New York and the US.
It’s also not necessarily a cause for concern, given the lack of scientific evidence to suggest that the subvariants cause more severe disease or are more resistant to vaccines, but if case increases translate to skyrocketing hospitalizations, both could be.
New York health officials raised a new flag earlier this month when they said the rate of occurrence of the subvariants was higher than the national rate in certain counties in the Midwest and said they believed BA.2.12. 1 was the culprit.
Last week, state data showed central New York had a COVID reinfection rate nearly three times higher than the state average, though it’s not clear why. It could be a function of subvariants or decreased vaccine efficacy or any number of factors combined. This week, Central New York’s reinfection rate is less than double the state average per 100,000 residents (5.6 vs. 3.3), with the first region’s numbers starting to level off as the state average rises for a fifth week. consecutive.
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Reinfection data for all of New York State and by region.
Rates of infections and hospitalizations have also increased statewide, according to the Department of Health, but it’s not clear what’s behind that.
Overall, COVID hospitalizations in New York have remained manageable amid this latest viral uptick, with about half of people admitted for COVID in the state not going to the hospital because of the virus in the first place. It was found during routine testing, suggesting those cases were minor from a COVID perspective.
State data clearly shows that total hospitalizations are now a mere fraction of what they were during Omicron’s peak surge in January. It should be noted, however, that the rolling rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 residents in central New York, where these Omicron subvariants have been especially prevalent, is about 110% higher than the state rate (15.92 vs. 7.58) and nearly 240% higher than New York City (4.72%).
Now, more than two years into the pandemic, officials are not hesitating to urge people to take extra precautions, whether they’re vaccinated or not, even as they insist they’re not sounding any public health alarms again.
As Hochul put it this week, “The vaccine remains the most effective tool we have to prevent serious illness. Make sure you and your friends and family are vaccinated and boosted if you qualify. If you have symptoms, be sure to get tested.” and if you test positive, talk to your doctor about available treatments. Let’s keep using the tools and move safely through this pandemic.”
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