It’s the middle of summer and there’s covid-19 again. “This is the start of a new wave,” says virologist Marc Van Ranst.
Covid-19 may be a distant memory for you, but the disease is spreading again in several European countries, including Belgium.
Three months ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it no longer considers the pandemic a global public health emergency. Meanwhile, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) warns of an increase in the number of corona infections in the coming weeks, although the number of cases is not comparable to the winter of 2022.
Covid-19 is also coming to life again in the United States, the United Kingdom, India and Japan.
Golf number 11
Can we speak of a new wave? Virologist Marc Van Ranst thinks so. ‘For those who keep track of the count: this is now the eleventh wave. It is not entirely unexpected, but it has been remarkably long in coming. Viruses are constantly changing. This variant, the EG.5, is still a subvariant of the meanwhile known and dominant omikron variant of the coronavirus. But if the new variant was a highly mutated variant of SARS-CoV-2, that would be much bigger news.’
The EG.5 variant seems to spread more easily under the influence of new genetic mutations and seems to escape the immune system better. But experts also point to lowered immunity and mass gatherings during the summer.
‘In the summer, people tend to go out into the open air more often, but they are often crowded together on a bus, in a car or on an airplane,’ Van Ranst notes. ‘Different groups of people meet each other at camps and festivals. That always gives some possibilities for a virus. Except for a few people who feel sick, the mouth masks have also completely disappeared from the streets. That development is also not unexpected.’
A more strongly mutated variant has already emerged: BA.2.86 shows 36 mutations that differ from the currently dominant omikron variant XBB.1.5.
Van Ranst is not worried for the time being. “When a new variant appears on the horizon, there is always heightened vigilance about a possible increased infectivity and additional public health risks compared to other circulating omikron lineages. You can worry about everything all the time, but we have to wait and see what BA.2.86 will do.’
What does autumn bring?
Meanwhile, the vaccination campaign is also starting again. High-risk groups such as people over 65, pregnant women, people with underlying conditions and healthcare personnel are advised to get vaccinated again for covid-19 from September, just like for the flu.
The booster shots were developed to deal with the XBB.1.5 omikron subvariant. An autumn booster is also recommended for obese people and people with a weakened immune system.
‘It is impossible to predict what the autumn will bring,’ says Van Ranst. ‘But I’d be surprised if there weren’t any waves. The coronavirus is on its way to becoming endemic with us, which means we will be confronted with it a few times a year. In the longer term, this may evolve into one epidemic per year, as is currently the case with so many other respiratory viruses. But at the moment the corona virus is still in its puberty. It hasn’t learned how to behave yet.’
2023-08-22 10:26:59
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