Cnn
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As millions of Americans travel to be with friends and family in the coming days, there’s a high chance that Covid-19 will catch up.
Experts predict that the Thanksgiving rally will unleash social networks and provide vulnerable people with a new variant of the novel coronavirus. As a result, cases and hospitalizations could increase after the holidays, as they have in the past two years.
Covid-19 is not unique in this regard. The Thanksgiving rally also has the potential to increase the spread of other viruses, especially respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, and the flu, both of which are already at high levels this time of year.
“We have seen that in some areas RSV numbers are starting to decline. Flu rates are still on the rise. A lot of people gathered,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Tuesday on CNN After the holidays, we could also see an increase in COVID-19 cases.
But things have been relatively quiet on the Covid-19 front. Experts say it probably won’t last long.
“COVID positivity is on the rise,” said Shishi Lu, associate director of bioinformatics and infectious diseases at the genetic testing company Helix, which monitors variants of the coronavirus. “It increased fastest among people aged 18 to 24” in the Helix sample.
This is the first time positive tests have increased in Helix’s data since July.
When positive tests rise, it means more and more Covid-19 tests are coming back positive and this could be an indication that transmission is on the rise.
“We should expect more cases,” Lu said. “Whether this is measured by how we measure cases at the moment, I don’t know, but I think in general you will see a lot more people getting sick. Of course.”
The rapidly rising cases may not be counted in the official tally because people are often tested for Covid-19 at home and do not report their results, if at all tested.
The BQ Omicron subvariant dominates US broadcasts. BQ.1 and its subsidiary BQ.1.1 are derivatives of BA.5; They have five and six major mutations, respectively, in the spiky protein that helps them evade immunity from vaccines and infections. Because of this change, they grow faster than BA.5.
For the week ending November 19, the CDC estimates BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 caused about half of all new cases of Covid-19 in the United States. But so far, they’ve risen to dominance without much impact.
Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have remained unchanged over the past four weeks. But it has not disappeared: on average, more than 300 dead americans and 3400 people He was hospitalized every day With Covid-19, according to data from the CDC.
Nobody knows exactly what will happen with the BQ variant. Many experts say they are confident we won’t see a major winter surge in the past, certainly not like the original Omicron variant, with a staggering spike of nearly a million new infections daily.
There is reason to be optimistic on several fronts.
First, there is the experience of other countries such as the UK where BQ.1 has outperformed its competitors in controlling transmission with widespread cases, hospitalizations and deaths. He fell. Something similar happened in France and Germany, notes Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
He said: ‘Cases were increasing in France and Germany shortly before the sub-variant arrived. Then the variant arrived and the cases really decreased”.
Bill Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, believes our behavior and social contacts may be a bigger factor in whether cases rise this round rather than any variable paving the way.
He thinks we will likely see an increase in cases that could peak around the second week of January, as in previous years, but it won’t have a big impact on hospitalizations and deaths.
Andrew Pekosz, a virologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, says this may be because the benefits of BQ.1 are incremental rather than radical.
“He may have a bit of a fitness edge, so what we’re seeing is a gradual replacement without major changes in the total number of Covid-19 cases,” he said.
None of this means that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will have no effect. They have shown remarkable resistance to the antibodies available to protect and treat people exposed to severe Covid-19 infections. From this perspective, there are good reasons why people need to be careful if they have weakened immune systems or are surrounded by someone who does.
But these subvariants will decline at a time when population immunity is as high as ever, thanks to vaccines and infections. That’s a very different situation than the virus was in when Omicron came out a year ago, Pecos said, and it will also help quell the incoming influx.
“With so many people now strengthened and vaccinated, and with some immunity to Omicron infection, it’s a very different demographic landscape for one variable to emerge,” he said. “I think all the evidence is the best part of the scenario in terms of not seeing a huge increase in cases.”
If there’s any reason to be concerned about BQ in the United States, it might be this: Americans aren’t as immune or well fortified as other countries. CDC data shows that two-thirds of the population have completed their initial round of Covid-19 vaccines and only 11% of those eligible received the latest bivalent booster. In the UK, 89% of the population aged 12+ have completed their core series and 70% have progressed to further education.
New research shows that a country’s vaccination rate matters more than any other individual factor in terms of the effect of a variant on the population.
Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory recently solved this problem she studies Investigate the causes and effects of 13 common types of coronaviruses as they are transmitted to each other in 213 countries. This study includes data through the end of September and was published as a preprint prior to peer review.
Of the 14 variables that affect the speed and height of a new wave of Covid-19, a population’s vaccination rate is by far the most important.
The number of past cases in a country, the proportion of people wearing masks, median income and the proportion of the population over 65 are the second, third, fourth and fifth distances, respectively.
The number of other variables in the mix as the new variable goes up is also an important factor, said senior study author Pete Korber, a labmate in the Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group at Los Alamos.
Indicate the Alpha variant, B. 1. 1. 7, and how it performs in the UK compared to the US.
“When it comes through England, it’s very fast, but much slower in America,” Corber said.
When Alpha arrives in the US, we are developing our California and New York variants “which are very special and have a competitive edge over what we had to deal with in the UK,” said Corber, who may have slowed the process here. .
The CDC is tracking the soup of more than a dozen Omicron subvariants that are causing cases in the United States, and these varieties may just help keep the cold season running.
But Korber made no predictions. It’s very difficult to know what will happen, he said, pointing to Asia as a source of uncertainty.
Asian countries are facing a surge led by recombinant XBB, a variant that does not have a significant presence in the United States. The BQ variants came later, but he says they looked impressive against XBB, which is also very immune.
“BQ has really taken a stand there,” Korber said. “So I don’t think it’s yet possible to say for sure” what might happen in the United States.
“For me, this is the time, if possible, to wear a mask,” she said. Masks protect the wearer as well as other people around him. “And get a booster if you qualify and now’s the perfect time for you,” especially when we gather around the dinner table to feast on friends and family.
“It’s time to exercise more caution to prevent surges we don’t want, or at least reduce them,” Korber said.
