For years, the trend of growing big cities was unbroken – but because of Corona that has changed. According to a new study, the largest German cities are not only growing more slowly, most cities have actually shrunk. And Hamburg?
The scientists at the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research (UFZ) used the resident registration data to study the population development in the 15 largest German cities of Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Cologne, Munich, Leipzig, Dresden, Hanover, Düsseldorf, Essen, Bremen, Stuttgart, Nuremberg and Dortmund and Duisburg viewed.
Population development: Most cities recorded a minus of 0.18 percent in 2020
At the end of the 2010s, these cities almost all grew, according to the researchers, by an average of half a percent (0.55) between 2017 and 2018. In 2019, growth was still 0.36 percent. But in 2020 there was a sharp slump with an average minus of 0.18 percent. According to the researchers led by Dieter Rink, this is due to lower immigration, fewer births and more deaths in the Corona year 2020.
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In all municipalities, there was a drop of almost 17 percent in arrivals, while departures fell by nine percent. The ratio of births to deaths was also unfavorable last year: a drop in births of 2.5 percent was offset by an increase in deaths of almost five percent in the cities.
Hamburg: one of the few exceptions
And Hamburg? Together with Leipzig and Munich, the Hanseatic city is one of the few exceptions. Small or moderate growth was recorded here. The nationwide trend can also be observed here: According to the Federal Statistical Office North, more people lived in the Hanseatic city at the end of 2020 than in 2019: 5225; this corresponds to growth of 0.3 percent. For comparison: In the previous year there was a larger increase of 6074 people. In 2020, 4,057 people moved in, fewer than in previous years. 20,431 children were born in Hamburg last year, 18,308 people died. This is also slightly fewer births and more deaths than in 2019.
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“As it stands, long-term trends in population development in Germany’s 15 largest cities were slowed down or interrupted in the first Corona year 2020,” summarizes the UFZ researchers. Also for 2021 they expect further declining population figures. It can be assumed that “only low growth rates, stagnation and increased shrinkage can be observed”.
The city of Hamburg nevertheless assumes that Hamburg will continue to grow. The “Alliance for Housing” has just been updated, according to which around 10,000 apartments are to be approved each year. In autumn 2019, the North Statistical Office was still assuming that Hamburg could break the two-million-inhabitant mark by the 2040s. In November 2020, the Gewos Institute also forecast growth of 4.7 percent for Hamburg by 2035 to around 1.94 million inhabitants. (dpa/ncd)
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