One by one, new Russian trenches and defenses are appearing far beyond Russia’s borders. Does Putin have a new plan for neighboring Georgia?
A still image from a drone video shows ditches and defensive works near the border with South Ossetia in Georgia. The video was shared on Facebook on August 28. Screenshot: Facebook page of David Katsarava
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Published: 07/09/2023 12:43
The short version
New Russian trenches and defenses are appearing in Georgia, many hundreds of kilometers outside Russia’s borders. Russia has in practice taken control of two breakaway republics in Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. One of Putin’s closest allies, Dmitry Medvedev, has recently suggested that the regions may be incorporated into Russia.
The summary is created with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) and quality assured by Aftenposten’s journalists.
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The Ukrainian counter-offensive rolls stubbornly and bloody forward. The Russian soldiers had plenty of time to prepare. They built fortifications, laid out land mines and dug in along the front line.
But it is not only in Ukraine that there has been high Russian construction activity. Recently, new Russian trenches and defenses have also appeared along another line. It lies many hundreds of kilometers further east: in Georgia.
In August, it was 15 years since Russia carried out a bloody attack on the neighboring country to the south. The war ended with Georgia losing control of around a fifth of its territory.
In retrospect, it is also seen as a foretaste of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions and plans for Ukraine.
Several new military positions
The drone glides over the plain landscape. The images reveal deep ditches and small roadworks covered with camouflage netting.
These are new Russian defense positions. Among other things, they have appeared at a highway on the border with South Ossetia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway republics. The other is Abkhazia. Russia claims they are independent states, but has in practice ruled them since 2008.
Russian defense works near South Ossetia Video shared on Facebook by David Katsarava, leader of the Power is in Unity group, on August 28, 2023.
Russia also disputes where the borders of the republics are. They use old Soviet maps to take control and build defenses also outside South Ossetia, according to the report Politico.
The result? Russian barbed wire that cuts through constantly new parts of the landscape. Barriers prevent the people who live here from moving freely.
The fresh drone images were shared Facebook at the end of August. The man who shared them is called David Katsarava. He leads the Power is in unity group. It fights against the Russian occupation.
– The Russians are strengthening the checkpoints at the occupation line, writes Katsarava.
He adds that such defenses have been seen near several villages in the border area.
A picture of a well-hidden defensive structure dug into the landscape near the border with South Ossetia. Photo: Facebook page of David Katsarava
Show moreFacts
Georgia
Georgia is located in the Caucasus region, in a strategically important area where Europe meets Asia, and has 4.9 million inhabitants.
Borders Russia, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan and has a coastline towards the Black Sea.
Was annexed by the Russian Empire at the beginning of the 19th century. Incorporated into the Soviet Union after being invaded by the Red Army in 1921. Declared independence in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Georgia has two pro-Russian breakaway republics in the north, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia moved into Georgia in 2008. It ended with Georgia losing control over the breakaway republics, which today are in practice under Russian control.
The country has decided to apply for membership in both the EU and NATO. The EU requires several reforms before the country can gain candidate status. NATO promised Georgia membership in 2008. However, the ruling Georgian Dream party has brought the country closer to Russia.
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– Active escalation
The Facebook post was shared shortly after one of Putin’s closest allies made a sensational move.
– The idea of joining Russia is still popular in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And it may well be carried out if there are good reasons.
Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote that in the Russian newspaper Arguments and Facts (Arguments and facts).
His article came in connection with the fact that it has been 15 years since the war between Russia and Georgia.
– In 2008, we stopped the attack on Tbilisi when we had managed to remove the threats that had arisen, wrote Medvedev.
– But now there is an active escalation of the situation again. Apparently to create a new hotbed near our borders, he continues.
The deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, often makes startling statements. He believes that the breakaway regions of Georgia may wish to become part of Russia. The picture is from April. Photo: Sputnik/Reuters/NTB
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Medvedev is known as one of Russia’s foremost “hawks”. Among other things, he has said that Russia should use nuclear weapons in connection with the Ukraine war.
But even though Medvedev is known for extreme statements, Aage Borchgrevink, a senior advisor to the Helsinki Committee, does not deny that his article may indicate that the Kremlin is preparing a new plan for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Might try using Ukraine strategy
It is not new that Russian defense works appear in the disputed areas of Georgia. They have been doing that since the war 15 years ago.
Most Georgians dislike it very much. However, the government, led by the Georgian Dream party, is much more friendly to Russia than the citizens, says Borchgrevink.
They allow the Russian construction activity to continue without doing much about it.
– Georgia struggles between East and West. That is what is very clear, says Borchgrevink to Aftenposten.
Aage Borchgrevink
Senior advisor in the Helsinki Committee
So what is Russia really after? Borchgrevink has a couple of theories.
1. The war in Ukraine means that Russia has lost power and influence in the South Caucasus, the region where Georgia is located.
– I think Russia might think that they want to secure what they have, says the senior adviser.
– They must also complain that the next government in Georgia is not as positive towards them as the current one. Then it is probably a good idea to secure this occupation.
2. It may be that Russia will annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as they did with the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula and tried with parts of Eastern Ukraine. This is what Medvedev’s article may indicate.
– Russia has wondered a little about how they should relate to these breakaway republics, which they have in practice occupied, says Borchgrevink.
– One scenario is to hold a referendum on incorporation, such as in Crimea. But it won’t be easy, at least not in Abkhazia. Because not everyone there wants what the Kremlin wants.
2023-09-07 10:44:15
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