Angers, Rennes, Toulouse, Lyon, Strasbourg, Paris… In all these agglomerations, new housing offers are scarce. This is what the Observatory of the Federation of Real Estate Developers (FPI) reveals in its barometer published in November. In Rennes, for example, developers only have 9 months of “stock” of housing for sale in their reserves. In Strasbourg, only ten months. In Lyon, less than eleven. In Ile-de-France, less than nine. The prize for the most stressed agglomeration certainly goes to Angers, where developers only have around 5 months of stock before the homes marketed are exhausted …
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If these figures are worrying, it is because – as we know – new real estate programs take well over a year to emerge. Between the search for new land, the filing of the building permit, the marketing and the actual launch of the sites until the final delivery… The delays are sometimes counted in years. However, the developers are alarmed, the year 2020 was a real halt to their project launches: epidemic crisis, extended municipal elections (with its share of uncertainties on urban planning policies), increased constraints concerning the artificialization of soils… “This quarter could have been marked by a catch-up in commercial launches and sales, deplores the FPI. On the contrary, the crisis is getting worse ”.
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Building permits that are becoming scarce
Another cause for concern for developers: their indicators show for the moment little cause for optimism. Take the number of building permits issued between October 2019 and September 2020: it has fallen historically low, underlines the FPI. “In our market, only 192,400 have been delivered for collective housing,” say the developers. That is 18.5% less than over the twelve months of the previous year! The sharp drop in building permits will lead, the developers deduce, to a “massive reduction in the supply of housing in metropolitan areas” over the coming months.
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As for the new homes offered for sale … the news is hardly more encouraging. “The listings for the first 9 months of 2020 are the lowest in almost 20 years,” reports the REIT. In detail, 52,826 new homes arrived on the market during the period, against 88,972 during the first 9 months of 2019. That is a spectacular drop of 40.6% between the two periods.
Prices that are stagnant … for now
Who says scarce housing often says more expensive housing … But for the moment, real estate developers note, the rise in new prices seems to be slowing down. According to data compiled by the FPI, they only increased by 0.3% between the third quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2019. Between 2018 and 2019, this increase was 4.2%. , to compare. “Prices seem to be stalling, but the uncertainty is such that this trend remains to be confirmed”, communicates the REIT. See you in a few months to find out which trend the new housing market will ultimately shift.
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