On paper, the figures for the second quarter of 2024 published by the South-West Real Estate Observatory are unequivocal: the new real estate market is doing poorly. In South Aquitaine, over a rolling year, the commercial offering fell by 14%, sales fell by 34% and listings fell by 72%. In the Basque Country Agglomeration alone, the fall is even more spectacular with 93% fewer homes put up for sale over one year.
The gradual withdrawal of investors, who now only represent 18% of sales in South Aquitaine, does not explain everything. The main reason for this unprecedented crisis is actually due to the mismatch between sales prices and the financial capacities of buyers.
1 Borrowing conditions still difficult
Individual borrowing rates rose from 1% on average in January 2022 to more than 4% two years later, reducing the real estate purchasing power of households by more than 30%. Over the same period, almost half of loan requests were refused by banking establishments due to the applicants’ debt levels being considered excessive. According to the Banque de France, home loan production fell by more than 30%, between the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
The picture could, however, become clearer. After a first reduction last June, the European Central Bank again reduced its key rates on September 12, leading in its wake to a drop in borrowing rates for individuals, now established at around 3.6% over 20 years. on average.
Since the spring, banks have also started to grant more loans. It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to restart the machine.
2 Sales prices correlated with production costs
After two lean years, a slight rebound in sales seems to have been confirmed in recent months. “The improvement has been felt especially since the end of summer in beautiful apartments sold for around 500,000 euros. We are at a tipping point, the market is gradually unraveling, but the situation remains fragile,” says Pascal Thibaut, head of Aedifim in Bayonne, not hiding his fears that the shortage of supply will cause , in the medium term, a new surge in prices.
“For lack of profitability, developers find themselves in a very complicated situation: either they give up leaving the programs, or they are forced to produce expensive housing inaccessible to the greatest number of people,” notes with bitterness Arnaud Dunoyé, vice-president of the New Aquitaine Federation of Real Estate Developers, in charge of the Basque Country and Landes.
In the free sector as in the social sector, the situation is all the more confused as the national housing policy lacks visibility and as local elected officials, with the next municipal elections approaching in 18 months, are becoming more and more cautious. to grant building permits.
