New Poll Shows Joe Biden Leading Donald Trump by Six Points Among Registered Voters
In a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, Joe Biden has taken a six-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters. This marks a significant shift from December, when Biden held only a one-point lead. The poll also reveals that Biden’s support among women voters has increased, with 58 percent of women backing the current president compared to 36 percent for Trump. In December, Biden’s lead among women was smaller, with 53 percent supporting him and 41 percent supporting Trump.
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy suggests that the gender demographic is a key factor to watch. He notes, “Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.” This shift in support could have a significant impact on the upcoming elections.
The poll also delves into the hypothetical 2024 general election, where Biden’s lead over Trump was considered too close to call in December. However, the latest poll shows Biden leading by a more comfortable margin of 47 to 46 percent. Partisanship remains strong, with 96 percent of Democrats supporting Biden and only two percent supporting Trump. On the other hand, 91 percent of Republicans back the former president, while seven percent support his successor. Among independent voters, Biden leads with 52 percent compared to Trump’s 40 percent.
The survey was conducted among 1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide between January 25th and January 29th. The increase in Biden’s lead among women voters coincides with recent events surrounding Trump’s legal battles. Trump was ordered to pay writer E Jean Carroll $83.3 million in damages in a defamation case brought against him by Carroll. In her 2019 memoir, Carroll accused Trump of raping her in a Manhattan department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. Trump vehemently denied the allegations and personally insulted Carroll multiple times. In a previous defamation trial, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse. The recent trial focused on determining the damages to be awarded.
When it comes to male voters, Trump still holds a lead with 53 percent backing him compared to 42 percent supporting Biden. However, this represents a slight shift from December when the figures were 51 percent for Trump and 41 percent for Biden. The poll also considered a hypothetical race that included independent and third-party candidates. In this scenario, Biden received 39 percent, Trump got 37 percent, former Democrat-turned-independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr received 14 percent, independent Cornel West received three percent, and Jill Stein of the Green Party received two percent.
Interestingly, the poll also looked at a possible matchup between Biden and Nikki Haley, Trump’s last remaining challenger for the Republican nomination. The results showed Haley beating Biden by five points with 47 percent support compared to Biden’s 42 percent. In terms of the Republican primary, Trump remains the frontrunner with 77 percent support, while Haley trails at 21 percent. On the Democratic side, Biden leads with 78 percent, followed by author Marianne Williamson at 11 percent and Minnesota Rep Dean Phillips at six percent.
While Biden’s approval rating has seen a small increase since June of last year, the majority of voters still view him negatively, with 41 percent approving and 55 percent disapproving. On the topic of the economy, 42 percent approve of Biden’s handling while 57 percent disapprove. Tim Malloy suggests that as inflation fears cool down and the campaign intensifies, President Biden is experiencing a slight uptick in confidence regarding his handling of the economy.
Regarding foreign policy, opinions are more divided. When asked about Biden’s handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 47 percent of voters approved while 46 percent disapproved. On foreign policy in general, 37 percent approved of Biden’s approach, while 57 percent disapproved. Two areas where Biden received low approval ratings were the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas and the situation on the US-Mexico border. Only 34 percent approved of his handling of the war in Gaza, while 56 percent disapproved. Similarly, on the issue of the border, only 28 percent approved of Biden’s approach, with 63 percent disapproving.
A recent strike in Jordan that led to the death of three US troops has also sparked concerns among voters. The poll revealed that 84 percent of respondents expressed worry that the US could be drawn into a conflict in the Middle East. Tim Malloy commented on the growing concerns, stating, “Are the winds of war swirling in the sands of the Middle East? As American troops take deadly fire from terrorist proxies, the conflict footprint is broadening, and with it, the concerns of a large majority of voters are solidifying.”
The survey also asked respondents to rank the most important issues for the country. Among the options provided, 24 percent chose preserving democracy as the top issue, followed by 20 percent selecting the economy and another 20 percent choosing immigration. Interestingly, there was a significant gap between Republicans and Democrats on these issues. While 12 percent of Republicans listed democracy as their top concern, 39 percent of Democrats prioritized it. On the other hand, among Republicans, 38 percent saw immigration as the most important issue, while among Democrats, only the economy (12 percent) and democracy reached double digits. Among independent voters, 23 percent considered preserving democracy as the most important issue, followed by 19 percent selecting immigration and 18 percent choosing the economy.
As the 2024 elections draw closer, these poll results provide valuable insights into the current political landscape. Biden’s lead among registered voters, particularly among women, signifies a shift in support. However, the race remains highly competitive, with hypothetical matchups and primary battles still to come. It will be interesting to see how these numbers evolve in the coming months as both parties gear up for another intense election cycle.
