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Political scientist James W. Davis analyzes the upcoming US presidential elections. He sees a new phenomenon: reversed coattails.
Hardly anyone can analyze the USA, its politics and the upcoming presidential election better than he can: the American political scientist James W. Davis. He is a proven expert in US politics and international relations and has been teaching in German-speaking countries for decades. He regularly writes for IPPEN.MEDIA about the situation in the USA and the upcoming presidential election.
In this strangest of all American elections, another surprising development seems to be brewing. In assessing the likely outcome of a presidential election, those who make their living analyzing American politics often talk about “coattails.” In American election jargon, the term, which is meant to evoke the extended back of a formal tailcoat or cutaway jacket, refers to the ability of a popular presidential candidate to help candidates for lesser offices to victory. These candidates are said to “ride on the coattails” of the popular politician.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan – probably the last president who liked to wear a cutaway jacket – showed that he had long and very strong coattails. Although Reagan was expected to win the US election against the unpopular incumbent President Jimmy Carter, most election observers were surprised when no fewer than twelve Republican candidates for the Senate unexpectedly defeated the Democratic incumbents on election night. In the so-called “Reagan Revolution” of 1980, control of the Senate passed to the Republicans for the first time since 1954. With control of the White House and the Senate, the Republicans were able to begin rolling back the welfare state, a Republican project that continues to this day.
► James W. Davis, US-American, is one of the most renowned experts on US politics and international relations.
► He studied International Relations at Michigan State University, received his doctorate in political science from Columbia University in 1995 and completed his habilitation at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munichwhere he taught until 2005.
► Since 2005 he has been Professor of International Relations and Director of the Institute of Political Science at the University of St. Gallen.
►Davis is the author of several books and has received numerous scientific awardsincluding visiting professorships and fellowships at renowned institutions.
US election: Republicans all over America are trying to wrap themselves in Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again”
In this upside-down election year, analysts are beginning to consider a fairly new phenomenon: “reverse coattails.” Rather than thinking about how a strong presidential candidate might carry weaker candidates to victory, many are assuming that particularly weak and unpopular candidates for congressional or state offices might weigh on the front-runners by clinging to their coattails. If the burden is too great, it could cost the front-runner the election.
Harris repeatedly upset Trump during the TV debate. (Archive photo) © Morry Gash/AP/dpa
Currently, this seems to be the case in “MAGA land.” Across America, numerous Republicans are attempting to cloak themselves in Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (hence “MAGA”) slogan. Not only are they pledging allegiance to the former president’s political agenda, but they are also imitating his oratory style and repeating his outrageous claims that the 2020 election was “stolen” and that the hooligans who stormed the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, were peaceful protesters.
Trump’s popularity does not transfer to candidates before the US election
But does the popularity of Trump’s MAGA credo carry over to other candidates? Two examples suggest the answer is clearly no, and show how some pretty crazy candidates could actually help Democrats in crucial swing states by reducing support for Trump.
Take Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona. Two years ago, the former television host wrapped herself in the MAGA cloak as she tried to win the governorship of this key western swing state. Instead of proposing some policies that could address the real needs of her state, Lake relied largely on repeating Trump’s claims of voter fraud in the last presidential election. The strategy didn’t work. Lake lost to her Democratic opponent.
US election: In 2020, Arizona voters were decisive
Now, a good politician would probably learn from her past mistakes and adapt her political message. Not so with Ms. Lake. She refuses to accept defeat and is now running for the United States Senate on the baseless claim that the Democratic governor of Arizona stole the 2022 election from her and is nothing more than a “squatter.” But her attempt to once again present herself as a local version of Trump has clearly failed. In most polls, she is at least 6 percentage points behind her Democratic opponent.
In 2020, Arizona voters were crucial to the outcome of the election. When pro-Trump Fox News television reporters announced on election night that Biden would win the state, Trump’s fate was sealed. Could the unpopular Kari Lake remind Arizona voters why they rejected the former president four years ago? If so, Ms. Lake would hurt Trump’s chances of winning back Arizona, which he must do if he wants to beat Kamala Harris in November. That would be an example of reverse coattails.
“A win in North Carolina would give Harris a significant cushion”
The situation is even more dangerous for Trump in the state of North Carolina. Barak Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in a presidential election, but with its 16 electoral votes (you need 271 to win the presidency), North Carolina is once again attracting Democrats’ attention as recent polls show a statistical balance between Trump and Harris. A win in North Carolina would give Harris a significant cushion and allow her to lose in another swing state and still win the election.
Republican candidate posted lewd comments on online porn platform
North Carolina Republicans have nominated a certain Mark Robinson for governor in what can only be seen as an example of collective insanity. Robinson, himself an African-American, was nominated because he seemed to be a solid MAGA Republican. Yet he has reportedly called for the reinstatement of slavery, called himself a “black Nazi,” and posted lewd comments on an online porn platform in the past! Donald Trump, for his part, praised Robinson as “even better than Martin Luther King,” “a star among the politicians of the United States of America,” and “a great friend.”
With North Carolina voters now fleeing Robinson, Republicans have given up all hope of winning the gubernatorial election. But they are increasingly beginning to wonder whether Robinson’s unpopularity could also cost Donald Trump the election. In 2020, Trump won the state by a narrow margin of 1.3 percent. “Anything that affects a few thousand votes can be a big deal,” said former Republican North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory.
No wonder the Harris campaign is trying to link Trump to Robinson, while Trump seems to have forgotten his “great friend” and wants to keep him off his coattails at all costs.
