197 states, 90,000 participants, including 5,000 negotiators. For two weeks, government representatives will discuss the next steps in implementing the Paris Climate Agreement – i.e. how global warming can be contained to well below two degrees by the year 2100, and in the best case to 1.5 degrees.
To achieve this goal, all states are required to submit nationally determined climate plans (NDCs) on their own climate protection goals and measures. However, with the current NDCs, the world is currently heading towards up to 2.8 degrees of warming. The plans must therefore not only be improved, but also renewed – by the beginning of February. The upcoming update therefore represents one of the two central themes of COP29.
APA/AFP/Ludovic Marin The President of the host country Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, sees oil and gas as a “gift from God”
From Billions to Trillions: The Question of Money
Last but not least, one thing is needed above all to implement the NDCs: a “New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance” (NCQG).
World Climate Conference
The Conference of the Parties (COP) brings together the 197 participating states that signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The COP takes place every year in a different city; the two-week negotiations serve to formulate a resolution on further steps in international climate protection.
So a new climate finance target. The core topic of the negotiations will therefore be the question of how rich industrialized countries, such as those in the EU, financially support countries in the Global South with climate protection and climate adaptation measures as well as with compensating for damage and losses.
The current target is 100 billion US dollars per year to be made available in the fight against climate change. Now a new amount is to be negotiated. The UN climate chief Simon Stiell spoke of around 2.4 trillion dollars needed for this – “if not more”. What specific amount and whether the states can even agree on it is likely to become the Gordian knot of COP29.
Ultimately, financing also involves many other questions: Who pays? And why? How much? To whom? And what exactly is it for? These are all questions for which there are currently no clear answers, but which need to be found quickly. One thing is clear: without sufficient financial resources, the climate plans of countries in the Global South will be weaker – and global warming will therefore be greater.
AP/Sergei Grits This year’s climate conference is considered a “financial COP”, as the focus is on the issue of climate financing
Difficult starting position
Consequently, this year’s COP is also referred to as the “financial COP”. The Azerbaijani COP presidency, on the other hand, prefers to speak of an “enabler” COP, i.e. a conference that should “enable”.
debate
What will COP29 bring?
However, the authoritarian state itself lives from gas and oil exports, the COP chairman and environment minister Mukhtar Babayev is close to the fossil fuel economy, and the country’s autocratic ruler Ilham Aliyev speaks of oil and gas as a “gift from God”.
In addition, there is a relatively short preparation time, which could also have a negative impact on the negotiations. After all, milestones from past climate conferences such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the phase-out of fossil energy sources are largely attributed to the negotiating skills of the host country’s diplomats.
AP/Peter Dejong For Stiell it is clear that “we need money, and a lot of money – $2.4 trillion, if not more.”
Interim COP?
Last but not least, geopolitical turbulence is likely to have an impact on the COP: a recent election in the USA, a newly constituted EU, military conflicts and increased national interests due to the rise of right-wing parties.
A number of politicians have already canceled their participation: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as well as the heads of state and government of the USA, Canada, Australia, South Africa and Brazil. The next COP will also take place in Belem, Brazil in 2025 – the one on which many are already pinning their hopes for greater results. According to critics, the COP in Azerbaijan is only an “interim COP” anyway.
In many background discussions, politicians, business, science, NGOs and civil society tell ORF.at that they simply can no longer afford an “interim COP”. Even a bad result would be better than no result at all. And if the conferences of the past few years have shown one thing, it is that there can always be positive surprises.
