The first week following the official reduction of withholdings on grains saw modest improvements in local prices, though the volume of operations remained below initial expectations. The value for the new soybean harvest rose from US$282 to US$294 per ton, while corn increased from US$193 to US$198 per ton. Despite these gains, the export market remained cautious. Gustavo López, an analyst from Agritrend, noted, “Since the retentions were modified, only 200,000 tons of harvest corn 23/24 were declared. For the new campaign [2024/25], 230,000 tons of wheat and 250,000 tons of corn were declared, without barley or soy records.” He emphasized that there was no surge in declarations, stating, “The volume of sworn statements of sale abroad [DJVE] was low.Throughout the week, only two products added less than 500,000 tons.”
Juan Manuel Uberti, from the GRASSI SA runner, explained that the reduction in export rights, calculated on the FOB income of exporters, should translate into better prices for grains in the domestic market. He projected, “According to movements in the international reference market (Chicago) and FOB price formation, the advancement in the ability to pay for lower export rights would be around $30 for soybeans, $5 for wheat, and $6 for corn.” However, international price fluctuations during the week tempered local price improvements. “In the case of soybeans,Chicago gave positions,preventing improvement in local prices to some extent. Conversely, corn and wheat remained stable to firm in the international market, resulting in price increases beyond what lower export rights could explain,” uberti added. available prices for soybeans advanced by US$18, corn by US$14, and wheat by US$9.
Despite these adjustments, the impact on external sales was limited. uberti observed, “The measure has not yet generated a massive sales score by exporters.” He noted that the accumulated DJVE for soybeans, corn, and wheat showed no notable movements since the declaration, both for the current campaign and the upcoming 2024/25 season. Negotiated volumes in the market also remained steady. “It could not be said that the measure has triggered considerable sales and businesses,” Uberti clarified. After a brief pause in negotiations as the market assessed the measure’s implications, trading resumed at normal volumes. Data from the Rosario (BCR) trade stock market revealed that between monday and Thursday, 293,326 tons of soybeans, 484,225 tons of corn, and 215,693 tons of wheat were traded.Another critical factor influencing the market was the climate impact on South America, which added uncertainty to the thick harvest. Eugenio Irazuegui, an analyst at Zena, highlighted, “This last week has had as an axis of attention the growing need for rainfall in crucial areas for the thick harvest.” This weather-related concern further complex the outlook for grain production and pricing.
| Key Metrics | Soybeans | Corn | Wheat |
|——————————-|————–|———-|———–|
| Price Increase (US$/ton) | $18 | $14 | $9 |
| Negotiated Volume (tons) | 293,326 | 484,225 | 215,693 |
| Projected Price improvement | $30 | $6 | $5 |
While the reduction in withholdings has provided some relief to producers, the market remains cautious.Producers await better prices for their grain, but the interplay of international market dynamics, export declarations, and climatic uncertainties continues to shape the landscape.For more insights on global grain market trends, explore how international cooperation has stabilized wheat prices in recent years.Chicago Soy Market Faces Volatility amid trump’s Tariff announcements and BRICS Tensions
The Chicago soy market experienced significant fluctuations this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and new tariff announcements from the United states. March soy prices closed at $382.87 per ton on Friday, marking a $0.73 decrease from Thursday and a 1.3% drop compared to the previous week. analysts attribute this volatility to recent statements by former U.S. President Donald Trump,who targeted BRICS member countries and hinted at imposing 100% tariffs if they proceed with plans to replace the U.S. dollar in international trade.
Trump’s Tariff Policies Shake Global Markets
Trump’s aggressive trade policies have sent ripples through global agricultural markets. In addition to his warnings against BRICS nations, the U.S. government confirmed the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, citing concerns over illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. China was also included in the tariff list,albeit with a lower 10% duty. These measures have heightened uncertainty among traders, particularly in the corn market, which reacted negatively due to Mexico’s status as the primary destination for U.S. corn exports.
Domestic Factors Compound Market pressures
domestically, the soy market is grappling with challenges such as water scarcity and expanding areas under water stress, which have a more significant impact on prices than the reduction of export duties. Analysts note that the requirement for exporters to liquidate foreign currency earnings within 15 days has added financial strain, influencing purchase offers. “This is a not less factor when determining purchase offers for merchandise origin,” said Irazuegui,a market expert.
Purchase proposals for soybeans have improved, reaching 315,000 pesos per ton, while corn with immediate discharge values was negotiated at 225,000 pesos per ton. However, the persistent drought conditions continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment.
Market Reactions and Future Outlook
the soy market’s volatility underscores the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic agricultural conditions. “The soya closed the wheel and the week with low prices in Chicago after a volatile day,” noted granar in a report. Traders are bracing for further developments as the Trump administration’s tariff policies unfold, with china now under the White House’s oversight.
| Key Highlights | Details |
|—————————————-|—————————————————————————–|
| March Soy Price | $382.87 per ton (down $0.73 from Thursday) |
| Weekly Soy Price Change | 1.3% decrease |
| Tariffs on Mexico and Canada | 25% (effective immediatly) |
| Tariffs on China | 10% |
| Domestic Soy Purchase Offers | 315,000 pesos per ton |
| Domestic Corn Purchase Offers | 225,000 pesos per ton |
As the market navigates these turbulent waters,stakeholders are closely monitoring both international trade developments and domestic agricultural challenges. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether these pressures will ease or further disrupt global commodity markets.
For more insights on the agricultural sector, visit Campo.
Market Volatility and Tariff impacts: A detailed Analysis
Editor: The recent market volatility in the Chicago soy market has been a topic of concern. Can you elaborate on the factors driving this instability?
Guest: Certainly. The Chicago soy market has experienced significant fluctuations due to a combination of geopolitical tensions and new tariff announcements from the United States. Former President Donald Trump’s statements targeting BRICS member countries and the imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China have created uncertainty among traders. These factors, coupled with domestic challenges like water scarcity and financial strain from currency liquidation requirements, have collectively fueled the market’s volatility.
Editor: How have Trump’s tariff policies specifically impacted global agricultural markets?
Guest: Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including the 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% duty on Chinese goods, have sent ripples through global agricultural markets. Mexico, being the primary destination for U.S. corn exports, has particularly felt the impact, leading to negative reactions in the corn market. These tariffs, aimed at addressing concerns like illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, have heightened market uncertainty and disrupted trade flows.
Editor: What are the domestic factors contributing to the pressures in the soy market?
Guest: Domestically, the soy market is grappling with significant challenges such as water scarcity and expanding areas under water stress.These environmental factors are having a more pronounced impact on prices than the reduction of export duties. Additionally, the requirement for exporters to liquidate foreign currency earnings within 15 days has added financial strain, influencing purchase offers and further complicating the market landscape.
Editor: What are the current purchase offers for soybeans and corn in the domestic market, and how are they being affected by these conditions?
Guest: purchase proposals for soybeans have improved, reaching 315,000 pesos per ton, while corn with immediate discharge values is being negotiated at 225,000 pesos per ton. However, persistent drought conditions continue to weigh heavily on market sentiment, keeping traders cautious about future developments.
Editor: What is the future outlook for the soy market given these turbulent conditions?
Guest: The soy market’s volatility underscores the interconnectedness of global trade and domestic agricultural conditions. as the Trump management’s tariff policies continue to unfold, and with China now under the White House’s oversight, traders are bracing for further developments. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether these pressures will ease or further disrupt global commodity markets.
Key Highlights
| Details |
|---|
| March soy Price: $382.87 per ton (down $0.73 from Thursday). |
| Weekly Soy Price Change: 1.3% decrease. |
| Tariffs on Mexico and canada: 25% (effective instantly). |
| Tariffs on China: 10%. |
| Domestic Soy Purchase Offers: 315,000 pesos per ton. |
| Domestic Corn Purchase Offers: 225,000 pesos per ton. |
Conclusion: The soy market is navigating a complex landscape of international trade tensions and domestic agricultural challenges. Stakeholders are closely monitoring developments, with the coming weeks being critical for the future of global commodity markets. For more insights on the agricultural sector, visit Campo.
