The progress for Rødt continues, we must believe Dagbladet’s recent poll. The party has a significant growth of 2 percentage points and lands on 8.1 percent support.
At the same time, voters continue to punish the Center Party. The party falls to 8 percent, from 13.5 percent in the parliamentary election, and is thus smaller than both SV and Rødt.
The survey was conducted by Ipsos last week. The margin of error is between 1.4 and 3.6 percentage points.
The survey was taken in the days before Russia invaded Ukraine. The effect of the war on voters has thus not been taken into account.
Young and urban
Rødt has especially stolen voters from SV and Miljøpartiet De Grønne. At the same time, Rødt is attracting a significant number of voters who usually do not vote, and young people who are going to vote for the first time. Rødt’s own voters are also very loyal, we must believe the poll.
The party’s hard line in the electricity price debate may have aroused many of the residents, believes political scientist Dag Einar Thorsen.
– Rødt roughly supplies itself to those who did not vote in last year’s election, especially to such a small party to be, Thorsen says.
He is an associate professor of political science at the University of Southeast Norway.
Red is especially popular among young voters in their 20s and 30s in Oslo and in Eastern Norway, according to the survey. Also among those with higher education.
The same pattern is seen in several places in Europe, according to the political scientist: Younger voters with higher education living in larger cities go to the left.
The party leader is pleased with this.
– The voters who voted for a historically strong left and a change of government after eight years of blue rule, probably wanted major changes in real politics. That is why they are now going to us in Rødt, because they see that we are the force that challenges the government from the left, says Rødt leader Bjørnar Moxnes to Dagbladet.
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The Center Party has traditionally managed to capture completely different groups to the red-green side. Older voters, those who live in smaller towns and districts, and those without higher education, have embraced Trygve Slagsvold Vedum. These are groups of voters who in many European countries are moving to the right.
But now these groups seem to disappear in all directions other than to the Center Party, the political scientist believes. Sp bleeds especially voters to the Conservatives, we must believe the poll.
– Some of the voters the Center Party won from the bourgeoisie, are in the process of walking back there, Thorsen says.
Sp already struggled before the election and is now as low as 8 percent. The party is thus Norway’s sixth largest. Many who voted Sp, have also sat on the fence and state that they do not know what to vote for.
Worst start in 25 years
Dissatisfied Sp
Thorsen believes the loss may be due to the party’s government ambitions, Vedum’s attempt to become prime minister and that Sp must constantly make compromises with the Labor Party.
The Center Party will not comment on the leak to the Conservatives specifically.
– The Center Party aims to be higher than this, says Geir Pollestad, parliamentary deputy leader of the Center Party.
The Conservatives, for their part, are satisfied with the increase of 2.5 percentage points. They are now the largest party with 26.8 percent. In last year’s election, the Conservatives got 20.4 percent.
– It is nice with good measurements and that people appreciate the work we do, says Conservative leader Erna Solberg.
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Ap escapes punishment
At the same time as the Center Party falls, the Labor Party is not punished in the same way for having entered government. That surprises the political scientist. Labor is growing by 3 percentage points from January to 25.5 percent and is now close to its own election result.
– What is happening here is the thousand kroner question ahead. This significant increase for the Labor Party may indicate that they are in the process of getting a crisis mood that makes them gather around the major parties, says Thorsen.
MDG and KrF end up below the threshold this month. The Liberal Party is over and ends up at 4.7 percent. The Progress Party falls by 2 percentage points and ends up at 10.5 percent.
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