Chinese people, cut off from the rest of the world for three years by COVID-19 restrictions, flocked to travel agency websites on Tuesday, ahead of the country’s borders reopened, even as a wave of infections swept through the health care system and upset the economy.
“Zero-Covid” measures have hurt China’s economy since early 2020, leading last month to the biggest public unrest on the mainland since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012.
A reversal of those measures this month means the virus will once again start spreading out of control among 1.4 billion people in China.
Official statistics.. and doubts
However, official statistics showed that only one death from the Corona virus had been recorded in the past seven days to Monday, which has raised questions among health experts and residents about government figures. These numbers are not in line with what was recorded in less populous countries after reopening.
Doctors say hospitals are overwhelmed with five to six times the normal number of patients, most of them elderly.
Estimates by international health experts indicate that millions of infections are recorded every day, with at least one million deaths from Covid expected in China next year.
However, the authorities are determined to scrap the last remnants of their policies aimed at preventing the spread of the Corona virus.
In a major step toward easing border restrictions, which was welcomed by Asian stock markets on Tuesday, the National Health Commission said on Monday that China would stop forcing arrivals to quarantine starting January 8. .
“We finally feel like China is over the crisis,” Colm Rafferty, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said of the impending lifting of quarantine restrictions.
And data from travel platform Ctrip showed that searches for popular cross-border travel destinations had multiplied tenfold in just half an hour after news of the lifting of quarantine restrictions.
The platform says the most popular destinations are Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and South Korea.
Data from another platform, Kynar, showed that within fifteen minutes of the news breaking, searches for international flights had increased sevenfold as usual, with Thailand, Japan and South Korea topping the list.
The health commission said that COVID control measures in China will be downgraded from the current category A to the less stringent category B from January 8 after the virus becomes less virulent.
This means that authorities will no longer have to isolate patients and their contacts and close areas.
But despite great enthusiasm for a gradual return to pre-Covid lifestyles, there is mounting pressure on China’s healthcare system as doctors say hospitals are overwhelmed with patients and funeral home workers say demand for their services has skyrocketed.
State media reported that nurses and doctors were being asked to work, even if they were ill, and retired health workers in rural areas were being rehired to help. Some cities have difficulty providing fever medicines.
short-term suffering
While expectations are that the world’s second-largest economy will see a significant recovery by the end of next year once the first wave of the infection subsides, China’s economy is expected to face difficulties over the next few weeks and months with the increase in patients among workers.
Many shops in Shanghai, Beijing and elsewhere have been forced to close in recent days with employees unable to come to work, while some factories have given many of their workers time off for the Lunar New Year, even if it falls in late January.
Analysts at US investment bank JP Morgan said in a statement: “Concern remains about a temporary disruption in the supply chain as the workforce is affected by the infection,” adding that their monitoring of movements in the subway in 29 Chinese cities showed that many have cut back on their commutes as the virus spread.
Data on Tuesday showed industrial profits falling 3.6 percent in January-November year-on-year, compared with a 3 percent decline in January-October this year, reflecting the impact of the lifting of antivirus restrictions that began last month, including major production areas.
The lifting of travel restrictions will give China’s economy a nearly $17 trillion boost, but there are stark caveats to keep in mind.
“The international travel rate is likely to boom, but it could take several months for it to return to its pre-pandemic level,” said Dan Wang, chief economist at Bank of China Hang Seng.
And he added: “Covid is still spreading in most of China, which greatly disrupts the normal work schedule. There is a huge loss of productivity and inflationary pressures in the coming months are likely to be strong due to the sudden increase in demand that will outpace the pace of supply recovery”.
