New CNN Poll Shows Trump Narrowly Leading Biden in 2024 Election Rematch
A recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS has revealed that former President Donald Trump is narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden in a potential rematch for the 2024 election. With presidential primaries underway and the 2020 general election still fresh in people’s minds, the poll indicates that the contest between Trump and Biden could be a closely fought battle on a national level.
Voters’ feelings about the two leading candidates are conflicted, with a significant minority expressing a desire for another option if Biden and Trump become the nominees. According to the poll, 49% of registered voters would back Trump if an election were held today, while 45% would support Biden. These numbers remain consistent with previous polling conducted by CNN in the fall of 2020.
The demographic dynamics of the contest also appear to be steady. The poll highlights a wide education gap as one of the most notable demographic divides, with smaller differences by age or race compared to other recent presidential elections. Biden’s support among traditionally Democratic-leaning blocs such as younger voters and voters of color has not seen significant growth since the fall. Voters younger than 35 remain evenly split between Biden and Trump, while voters of color break in favor of Biden, albeit with a smaller margin.
Interestingly, most voters on both sides of the hypothetical matchup continue to be more likely to say their choice is about Trump rather than about Biden. This sentiment is echoed by 68% of Biden supporters, who say they would be voting against Trump rather than for Biden. On the other hand, 60% of Trump supporters say they would be voting more for him than against Biden.
The poll also reveals that both Trump and Biden continue to be deeply underwater in favorability ratings, with a majority of Americans holding an unfavorable view of both candidates. A significant number of Americans believe that Biden does not deserve reelection, and the majority sees Trump’s views and policies as “too extreme” while perceiving Biden’s as “generally mainstream”.
Furthermore, the poll indicates that a victory by either candidate would leave most of the nation dissatisfied and upset. When voters were asked whether they would like to see another candidate from within their party run as an independent in a Biden-Trump matchup, a considerable number expressed interest. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 43% said they would want another Democrat to make an independent bid alongside Biden. Similarly, 40% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents expressed a desire for a Republican candidate to run as an independent in that scenario.
While the idea of a third-party or independent candidate for president is popular in pre-election polling, historically these bids rarely generate as much support as anticipated. Party loyalty plays a significant role, with broad majorities of voters saying they would be content if their party’s likely nominee wins. Approximately 8 in 10 GOP-aligned voters express satisfaction or enthusiasm with another Trump presidency, while roughly three-quarters of Democratic-aligned voters are similarly positive about a second Biden term.
It is important to note that neither Biden nor Trump has secured their party’s nomination yet. In another hypothetical general election scenario, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley holds a clear lead over Biden among voters nationwide, with 52% supporting her compared to 39% for Biden. This matchup primarily revolves around views of Biden, with the majority of his supporters stating that they back him more than they oppose Haley, while the majority of Haley’s supporters see it as more about opposing Biden than backing her.
However, many Americans admit to not knowing enough about Haley to form an opinion of her. Among those who do have an opinion, the sentiment tilts slightly negative. Haley trails Trump by a significant margin when Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters were asked who they would prefer to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2024.
Republicans express confidence in Trump’s chances of winning a second term, with 88% of Republican-aligned voters believing he has a realistic shot at winning the presidency if he becomes the nominee. In contrast, only 29% see Biden as having a realistic chance at winning. The poll also reveals that most Republican-aligned voters view Trump as generally mainstream rather than too extreme.
Haley faces more skepticism among potential Republican voters about her chances of winning. While national polls indicate that she holds a broader lead over Biden than Trump does in hypothetical matchups, only 54% of GOP-aligned voters see her as having a realistic shot at winning the presidency. Her favorability rating also lags significantly behind Trump’s among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.
Republican-aligned voters’ concerns about Trump as a candidate primarily revolve around his personality and image. The share of those who cite his abrasive or disrespectful nature as their biggest concern has increased since last summer. Other concerns include his ability to work with Democrats, his legal situation, and his public image. Despite these concerns, a majority of Republican-aligned voters believe that the party has a better chance to win the White House with Trump at the top of the ticket.
On the other side, most Democrats see Biden as having a realistic shot at winning a second term. However, a narrow majority also believes that the Democratic Party has a better chance to win in 2024 with someone else at the top of the ticket. Concerns about Biden among Democrats largely revolve around his age, with nearly half citing it as their biggest concern. Some also express concerns about his mental competence, ability to handle the job, and his longevity in office.
Interestingly, a new concern has emerged about Biden’s handling of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, with 5% of Democratic-aligned voters stating it as their major concern. This issue was not present when CNN last polled on this question in August. Younger Democratic-aligned voters are more likely to name this as their top concern compared to older voters.
The poll suggests that the enthusiasm gap, which favored Republicans in previous polling, may have narrowed. While 63% of Republican-aligned voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the 2024 presidential election, this number has decreased from 71% in the fall. Among Democrats, the share of those who are deeply motivated to vote has remained relatively stable.
Overall, Biden’s approval rating among all adults stands at 38% approve and 62% disapprove. Democrats are more positive toward his job performance, but a smaller majority believes he deserves a second term. Among independents, the majority disapproves of his job performance and does not believe he deserves a second term.
It’s worth noting that the CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from January 25-30 among a random national sample of 1,212 adults. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 3.8 points for registered voters surveyed.
