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Netflix – How to explain the giant’s fall

The streaming giant Netflix is ​​among the world’s largest streaming services, and has grown strongly in recent years. Growth, however, now appears to be slowing.

In the fourth quarter of last year, Netflix had almost 222 million subscribers worldwide, figures from extra. Despite a number of subscribers, the growth in the number of new subscribers to the company has been at its lowest level in five years.

During 2021, the company gained 14.2 million new subscribers. The company has not had fewer new subscribers since 2016, when they gained eleven million new users.

In Norway, Netflix’s market share is 20 percent, and has fallen by around five percentage points since January 2021, according to figures Dagbladet has received from the streaming guide JustWatch.

For the other power services, the figures go in the opposite direction.

– The competition is very high. New players are launched every now and then. It goes beyond some players. When there are new series or films, it affects the choices people make, says TV expert, Morten Wiberg in the media agency Carat.

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– Great effect

A major challenge for Netflix now is the introduction of a number of new streaming services. In the last two years alone, the streaming service Disney + and HBO Max have been launched in Norway.

For the competitor Viaplay, the market share has remained stable through last year, and they now have a market share of 17 percent – that is, they take on Netflix.

Disney’s streaming service Disney + came to Norway in 2020, and is definitely in the competition against Netflix and Viaplay. The service has a market share of 16 percent in Norway, and has had a relatively large increase from January last year.

The number of users worldwide has risen sharply from the first quarter of 2020, and has increased by almost 100 million subscribers. Today, the streaming service has a total of 118 million subscribers, according to extra.

In comparison, it took Netflix five years to get the same number of users.

The newly started service HBO Max holds 10 percent of the market share in Norway. JustWatch writes that Disney and HBO Max ‘entry into Norway has had an impact on Netflix’s market share.

– This had a big effect on market leaders Netflix and Prime Video, which have lost market share since January, writes JustWatch.

Furthermore, they highlight the competition from the power player Amazon Prime, which in Norway has a market share of 11 percent.

Takes the competitor more seriously

Media researcher at the University of Oslo, Vilde Sundet, believes that Netflix is ​​in fierce competition with the other streaming players.

Before, Netflix would say that their main competitor was sleep. Now they have begun to include competitors in their analysis. Netflix has become much more aware of the competitors they have around them, Sundet tells Dagbladet.

She goes on to say that the competition Netflix faces against Disney + in particular can be a challenge for the streaming giant. She points out in particular that Disney offers both content for adults and children.

The competition between the players also means that more money is spent on content.

– There is a reason why they have wasted money on content. So much money is spent on drama series to keep subscribers, and that is more than the market can bear, says Sundet.

However, she points out that Netflix will still be the first choice for many, and does not think the heyday of the company is over yet.

– Netflix has built up a large company, and they build regional offices around the world. They have a fairly strong international foothold, says Sundet.

Action case

Netflix shares have fallen as much as 41 percent since the peak level in November last year, and the share price has not been so low since April 2020.

Into the pandemic, and especially last fall, Netflix experienced tremendous growth, before going steeply down from its peak in November.

– Netflix is ​​one of the pandemic winners that did well for a long time. The concern now is that subscription growth stops and does not turn out as well as expected, says Erik Bruce, chief strategist at Nordea to Dagbladet.

The most brutal fall for Netflix came on January 21, when the share price fell almost 20 percent after the report which showed weak subscription growth.

– New power services have also been put in place, which have expanded in recent years. It will be a tough market in the future, says Bruce.

The sound at the University of Oslo also points out that the flatter growth curve can affect the share price.

– They still get new subscribers, but the growth curve is flatter. This makes shareholders a little sensitive to what is happening in the electricity market. Does that mean that things are going worse with Netflix as a company, Sundet asks.

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