Netanyahu is fighting for his survival. His biggest challenge: staying out of jail

Three things are at stake for Benjamin Netanyahu: to stay on as Prime Minister of Israel, to stay out of prison and to secure his legacy. A look at his political career shows that he will do everything he can to keep his power.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (73) is under fire. The man who has dominated the political landscape for nearly thirty years now seems to have overplayed his hand. Mass demonstrations broke out in response to legal reforms, in which the government wanted to severely limit the power of the Supreme Court. Undemocratic, say the demonstrators.

On Monday, the people waited for hours for the prime minister’s announced television speech. When he finally spoke, he said he is pausing reform plans because he is not prepared to “tear the nation apart”.

But Netanyahu’s fate is inseparable from these reforms. First of all, through the coalition he formed in 2022 with five far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, after his Likud party won the elections in Israel. It is easy to guess why Netanyahu wanted to rule with, among others, the radical Jewish Force party: this party wants to thoroughly reform the legal system. For example, by introducing a law that the sitting prime minister cannot be charged.

And that’s where the second fact comes in: Netanyahu has been dogged by many corruption scandals since 2016. The right-wing coalition also wants to remove the offenses he is suspected of (bribery, fraud and breach of trust) from criminal law. The reforms thus keep the Prime Minister out of jail and help him stay politically in control.

He would not be the first prime minister to be convicted of corruption. It also happened to his predecessor Ehud Olmert in 2014.

Political survivor

Netanyahu has a reputation as someone who likes to stay in power, says researcher Noa Schonmann (Leiden University), who specializes in modern studies of the Middle East. He currently leads Netanyahu’s sixth cabinet and has already managed to free himself from approached positions in the past. This is how Netanyahu survived the social justice protests that erupted in 2011. But the recent level of mass protests has hardly been seen since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948. Schonmann sees a seriously injured prime minister who is vulnerable.

Netanyahu became politically active in Israel’s parliament in 1988. Prior to that, the political scientist was Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations and served in the military. After his entry into parliament, he quickly made a career within the conservative-liberal party Likud: in 1993 as party leader, in 1996 as prime minister. He also held numerous ministerial posts in the past, such as Minister of Finance. Netanyahu ordered major economic reforms, but these successes are now also under discussion.

Palestinian issue

Netanyahu is known as a politician who takes a hard course and does not yield to anything or anyone. As an opposition leader, he opposed the peace process with the Palestinians in the 1990s. During his years in power, he worked hard to sideline the Palestinian issue, Schonmann says. “The premise ‘there is no peace in the Middle East without the Palestinians’, he doesn’t believe that.” In 2020, for example, he concluded diplomatic deals with the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Morocco and Bahrain. A thorn in the side of many Arabs.

Netanyahu always presented himself as Mr. Security , Schonmann analyzes. In 2019, for example, Israel built a controversial fence on the border with Gaza. ‘Israel first’ has always been his starting point. He maintained close ties with former President Donald Trump, who moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. A highlight in Netanyahu’s career.

He is a person of extremes, says the Middle East expert. “He is loved and hated. His record is as impressive to his supporters as it is menacing to his detractors. For years people were for or against ‘Bibi’, as he is popularly known. Now this narrative has turned: the prime minister has become a side story in a larger issue about the state of democracy. Looks like he’s lost control.”

Many Israelis who have taken to the streets to protest in the past 12 weeks believe Netanyahu is on the wrong side of this story. “What you are seeing now is a split between liberal democracy supporters and non-liberal hardliners.”

Internal discord

Whether he survives politically is looking in a crystal ball, says the researcher. Because of his alliance with the right, he has been playing a dangerous political game to stay in power for some time. Now he has overplayed his hand. He will certainly retain the support of the ‘bibists’ in the Likud party, but there is also a buzz from members who believe that Likud should break away from the Bibi phenomenon.

In addition, he has lost the support of the economic sector, which used to be a quiet but strong tailwind, Schonmann sees. “Maybe he’ll figure it out one way or another. What happens next depends on whether he is able to pull Israel out of this chaos. But his biggest challenge is staying out of prison.”