InfoQuest News Agency (28 Aug. 23)
NESDB reveals Thai social conditions in Q2/2023, employment improved by 1.7%, unemployment rate at 1.06%, improving trend While household debt in the first quarter of 2023 still increased by 3.6%, the total debt reached 16 trillion baht, and the credit quality dropped slightly. Keep an eye on car loans, bad debts have increased by 30%, the trend is increasing.
Mr. Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) or NESDB, reported on the Thai social situation in the 2nd quarter of 2023 found that the labor situation improved. from expansion in non-agricultural sectors while the agricultural sector was affected by drought. wages And the unemployment rate continues to improve continuously.
for employment Employment totaled 39.7 million people, an increase of 1.7% from the same period last year due to the growth of employment in non-farm sectors at 2.5% by hotels and restaurants. continued to expand well at 11.7% due to the recovery of the domestic economy. and the continuous entry of foreign tourists Likewise, the construction sector saw a 6.0% increase in employment and the manufacturing sector. Wholesale and retail and transportation and storage of goods also increased at 0.3%, 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, while the agricultural sector, employment contracted slightly from 0.2% in 2022, partly due to drought problems
Working hours have improved. Overall working hours and the private sector increased from the previous year to 42.7 and 46.7 respectively. continued to improve as well (Improved for 3 quarters since the 4th quarter of 2022), with the overall average wage and the private sector at 15,412 and 14,032 baht / person / month, while the unemployment rate tends to improve. Decrease from the previous year to 1.06% or 4.3 hundred thousand people are unemployed.
However, there are issues that need to be monitored in the next phase, namely:
1. Labor shortage that tends to increase continuously which, if considering job vacancies and the number of workers who were filled in jobs during the month of December 65-Jun. 23, it will be found that 1 job applicant has support for up to 5 positions.
2. Prepare for the retirement of low-skilled workers. In the second quarter of 2023, there were more than 1.3 million low-skilled workers in the private sector about to retire, while replacement workers tend to decrease.
3. Impact on employment and farmer’s income from drought that tends to be more severe The current accumulated rainfall is lower than normal in all regions. which decreases the amount of water will affect agriculture
“Labor shortage At this time there were still problems. especially in the service sector But in the manufacturing sector has not had much impact. because these workers are vocational groups Therefore, measures to help solve problems in the service sector must be looked at. with people being employed also inconsistent Part of it may be about the teaching curriculum. Or the number of graduates, about 40-50%, graduated in the management line, but most of the jobs required are science, engineering or production workers, which must be detailed again that How can there be improvements to make graduates more in line with job positions in the market?” said Mr. Danucha.
*Household debt in 1Q23 rose 3.6%
As for the household debt situation in the first quarter of 2023, it grew by 3.6%, while the overall credit quality of commercial banks slightly decreased. But the risk of bad debt of automotive loans tends to increase
In the first quarter of 2023, household debt amounted to 15.96 trillion baht, an increase of 3.6%, stable compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the ratio of household debt to GDP stood at 90.6%, slightly decelerating from the previous quarter. If considering household debt incurred by objective, it was found that households incurred debt for real estate. and personal consumption increases
on the ability to repay household debts The overall picture slightly decreased, with NPLs worth 144 billion baht or the ratio of NPLs to total loans at 2.68%, an increase of 2.62% from the previous quarter.
“Household debt in the past series has increased because the Bank of Thailand The definition of household debt has been revised. By taking the debt from the Student Loan Fund (Kor Sor.) 4.83 billion baht, other cooperative debt 2.5 billion baht, National Housing Debt 1.1 billion baht and Pico Finance 1.4 billion baht in total The value of the debt has increased by about 700 billion baht. causing the series that NESDB had calculated There is an average increase of 4.0-4.5%, with household debt in the first quarter of 2023 at 90.6%, down from 91.4% in the fourth quarter, “Danucha said.
automotive loan The trend of bad debt is increasing.
However, there are household debt issues that should be addressed as follows:
1. Bad Debt and the Risk of Bad Debt of Automobile Loans There is a tendency to continue to increase, with in the first quarter of 2023, the NPL of automotive loans increased by 30.3% from the same quarter last year and SML to total loans. continues to rise continuously as well
2. Debt traps of savings cooperative debtors Reflected from the borrowing behavior of most cooperative debtors. For personal use 26.1% and to pay off the original debt 23.1%
3. Encouraging Thai people to have the right financial attitude Although Thais have improved financial literacy levels But the survey tracks the level of knowledge. And household access to financial services in 2022 found that the right financial attitude of Thai people has decreased compared to 2020.
“Need to pay more attention to cooperative debt. due to the reason for incurring debt borrowed for personal expenses and pay the original debt get stuck in a debt trap and should focus on housing debt credit card debt And car debt as well. People have financial knowledge is important. But the correct use of money is worse. It was found that future financial planning decreased. A group of people who agree to save for the future. also decreased, so must accelerate knowledge and understanding in order to prepare for life after retirement without being difficult see that we need to speed up building attitudes from the working age,” Mr. Danucha said.
*The NESDB confirms that the 10% VAT is just an idea to make more money.
Mr. Danucha said that in the case of news coming out last week that The NESDB proposes an increase in the value added tax (VAT) from 7% to 10% by taking some of the 3% increase. To provide welfare to support an aging society, I confirm that this is still just an idea. But in detail, there is still a lot to be discussed.
“The news that came out arising from the office of the NESDB Seminars are held in terms of cross-generational societies. last Tuesday This issue was brought up for discussion. It’s still just an idea that should be considered. Because this idea may be another option. In addition to using the national budget to support the welfare of the aging society. The NESDB has not thought of proposing this matter to anyone. It’s an idea in a seminar only. to hear how much is possible What do most people think? Which may have other options in the future, “said Mr. Danucha.
* The Council of Ministers waits for details. “Digital Money Giving Policy”
As for his opinion on the 10,000-baht digital money giveaway policy, Mr. Danucha said that in this matter it must be considered in detail. which the details of such measures There are still coming out. must see how it will be in the end Therefore, at this time, I cannot comment. As with budget matters, fiscal conditions require discussions with many agencies. and see in detail whether the policy can be implemented or not
When asked about concerns if digital money is being given away, along with the moratorium policy Will it affect household debt or not? Mr. Danucha said that in the past, the focus was on debt restructuring. Because they don’t want to cause an event that has a psychological effect or Moral Hazard, so the debt restructuring Must be a measure that must be carried out continuously. to make those who have to pay debts or send debts all the time can continue to pay debts And can help in terms of spending power as well, however, must have a discussion with many agencies consider carefully by various measures The result must be viewed in terms of impact and positive results as well.
As for the prime minister, the 2nd quarter of 2023 GDP came out lower than expected. Therefore, such measures may have to be implemented. Mr. Danucha said that at the press conference for the 2nd quarter GDP report, he said that GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2023 grew only 1.8%. The main problems that arise from 2 things are
1. Exports contracted from Q4/22 to Q2/23 related to the domestic manufacturing sector. Most of them are in the industrial sector. The expansion of the manufacturing sector declined and 2. Regarding government consumption Where welfare transfers disappear due to the absence of the COVID-19 situation
Therefore, exports need to accelerate the market more. Although the value of exports over the past several months will be approximately $ 20,000 million But in terms of expansion, it did not expand much. Because compared to the same period last year, it will shrink, which must accelerate this matter further.
When asked whether today, Mr. Srettha Thavisin, Prime Minister, called the agency to talk. Whether there is a council as well or not, Mr. Danucha said that it is normal that the new prime minister has many processes to take. Must have relevant agencies to provide information that How was the past situation? Especially in terms of policy, the Prime Minister must have a discussion with various agencies. There must be a description of the principles, patterns, how they will be.
By Paphatsorn Ongphichetmetha/Kasamaporn Kitti relationship
2023-08-28 05:59:26
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