Weather and climate conditions, including the onset of higher temperatures in the northern hemisphere spring, should not be used as a pretext to relax public health measures to stop the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, says a report * from the World Meteorological Organization on weather and air quality factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic.
“At this stage, (scientific) knowledge does not support the use of meteorological and air quality factors as a basis for governments to relax their interventions aimed at reducing transmission,” according to the co-chair of the task force that carried out the research, Dr. Ben Zaitchik, of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Johns Hopkins University of the United States.
“We saw waves of infections that increased in the warm seasons and in warm regions during the first year of the pandemic, and there is no evidence that this cannot happen again next year, “he added.
COVID-19 transmission dynamics in 2020 and early 2021 appear to have been primarily influenced by government interventions such as mask mandates and travel restrictions rather than meteorological factors, according to the 16-member panel of earth and medical science experts and public health.
Other relevant drivers include changes in human behavior and demographics of affected populations and, more recently, virus mutations.
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Photographic composition: A medical worker is disinfected after treating patients for an infectious disease; the Jökulsárlón glacier lake; icons of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals:
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Seasonality of flu and other infections
The report looks at the potential role of seasonality. Respiratory viral infections often show some kind of seasonality, particularly the fall-winter peak for influenza and cold-causing coronaviruses in temperate climates. This has fueled expectations that, if it persists for many years, COVID-19 will turn out to be a strongly seasonal disease.
“The underlying mechanisms that drive the seasonality of respiratory viral infections is not yet well understood. A combination of direct impacts on the survival of the virus, impacts on human resistance to infection, and the indirect influence of climate and season through changes in human behavior may be at stake, ”the report says.
“Laboratory studies of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, have yielded some evidence that the virus survives longer in cold, dry conditions and low UV radiation”.
However, these studies have not yet indicated whether direct meteorological influences on the virus have a significant influence on transmission rates under real world conditions“, According to the document.
© UNHCR/William Wroblewski
A mobile school visits a Venezuelan refugee and migrant camp in La Paz, Bolivia.
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Poor air quality increases deaths, but not transmission
The evidence on the influence of air quality factors is not yet conclusive. There is some preliminary evidence that poor air quality increases death rates from COVID-19, but not that pollution directly affects airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, according to the Team. of work.
The report focuses on meteorology and air quality conditions and does not address the details of indoor air circulation.
The Interdisciplinary and International Task Force was established by the Research Board of the World Meteorological Organization in order to provide a quick summary of the state of knowledge on possible weather and air quality influences on the dynamics of COVID-19. given the staggering number of documents and preprints available today.
“The rapid pace of COVID-19 research has meant that studies with limited data appeared faster than the information could be collated and peer-reviewed. It soon became clear that the evidence reported was often contradictory or selective due to methodological and data-related deficiencies. Therefore, the Task Force seeks to promote good practices in research and communications ”, says Prof. Juerg Luterbacher, Director of Science and Innovation and Chief Scientist of the UN agency.
The future work of the Task Force will include the update of the scientific evidence during the next monthss, the identification and promotion of a structured set of priority research questions, objectives and priorities for investment in research in the areas of pandemics: climate, climate and air quality nexus.
Researchers will also advise and report on good practices and minimum standards for integrated infectious disease modeling methods considering environmental determinants.
The UN agency considers it equally important to maintain clear and active communication between researchers, the media and decision-makers to ensure that scientific findings are applied to policy in an appropriate, objective, transparent and accountable manner.
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