Ukraine and Russia met today for the first time at a high level since the Russian invasion. Foreign ministers Dmitro Kuleba and Sergei Lavrov met in the Turkish city of Antalya. No concrete agreements were reached. But has nothing really been achieved? If you look further, you see more, says Robert Serry, the first Dutch ambassador to Ukraine and also a former diplomat at the United Nations.
“The meeting itself is remarkable. The fact that it succeeded is a sign that something seems to be changing on the Russian side. Now they are talking again with one of the representatives of what they see as the ‘fascist clique’.”
Serry thinks Russia realizes it can no longer overthrow the Kiev regime. “That wish seems to have lapsed because Russia entered into talks with Kuleba.”
Moscow is taking that step now because things are not going as they expected. “Putin believes in his own rhetoric. That it would be easy to change the Ukrainians’ minds. But the Russians have not yet achieved one goal.”
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If these two ministers meet again – which has not happened yet – this could be the prelude to a conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, Serry thinks. “If it has to come from somewhere, it has to come from these two ministers.”
The two talked for about an hour and a half. An important topic of discussion was the establishment and maintenance of humanitarian corridors, which would allow civilians to leave besieged cities safely and allow convoys of relief supplies to reach the cities. But Lavrov rejected that demand because he couldn’t decide on it.
According to the former diplomat, a ceasefire is always the first step in real negotiations. “Only then can you negotiate demands. You need such a break for political progress.”
Serry speaks from experience. He sat at the negotiating table in the Middle East to bring Israel and the Palestinians closer together. According to Serry, Ukraine would be willing to declare itself neutral if other countries want to guarantee that status. That would mean Ukraine renounces NATO membership. “There should be something in return for the Ukrainians. A concrete perspective, for example, on EU membership.”
promises
Zelensky also said this week that his country is no longer pursuing NATO membership because NATO “seems unwilling to admit Ukraine”. He also said he is open to talks about the separatist regions supported by Russia. Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership has been cited by Putin as justifying his decision to invade Ukraine.
“Ukraine means border country. It’s always kind of dangled in between,” Serry says. “And that plays into this war. The West has made vague promises about NATO membership. Promises that have created expectations in Ukraine and suspicion in Moscow. If that continues, we will not solve anything.”
He is therefore not happy with Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s statements tonight, who says that Ukraine should not count on a rapid EU membership. “That will take months or years, if it ever happens,” Rutte said during an informal EU summit in Versailles.
bright spots
Serry believes in a compromise. “But then they must be offered concrete membership to the EU. We can help with that. Stop with that ambiguity. With a clear perspective on Europe, we can soften the bitter pill. There is a role for the EU.”
He also sees a role for Turkish President Erdogan. “Somewhere Putin has to bow down and he would rather do that with someone like Erdogan than with Emmanuel Macron or Joe Biden. So Erdogan can potentially play an important role. But we still have to be careful. There are some bright spots and there will be I always keep looking at it. Optimism I’ve learned.”
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