The researcher pointed out that if Russia’s settings do not change, then starting a new war and continuing the existing one is more a matter of time and opportunity. “The Kremlin can approach the talks as a battle rather than an end to the war and try to take a break and regroup,” Balodis said.
He recalled that Ukraine’s territory had been ravaged by war and that, even if an agreement were reached to end hostilities, Ukraine would need a great deal of time and resources to return to normal life.
Balodis expressed concern that Russia could use the negotiating time to regroup its military forces. “I am afraid that the reality at the moment is that military activity is linked to the negotiation process, so a conditional suspension of hostilities near Kiev is also possible,” he said.
He emphasized that although Russian military forces had begun to move away from Kiev, the decline in military activity had not reduced the scope for firing in other regions. “There is a regrouping of Russia in the direction of Dombasa. The removal of pressure from Kiev is reflected in other directions, such as in the east of Ukraine,” Balodis added.
The researcher noted that Russia’s current tactics also mean trying to adapt to the current circumstances rather than reaching a long-term solution to the conflict. Balodis also pointed out that any action during the negotiations is inevitably related to success on the battlefield.
CONTEXT:
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered to start Russian troops invade Ukraine. Putin claimed that NATO was going to use Ukraine as a bridgehead for aggression against Russia, although there was no evidence of these allegations. Ukraine believes that Putin’s real goal is to destroy Ukraine’s statehood and bring the territory under Moscow’s control.
Russia hoped to occupy Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities within a few days, but the Ukrainian armed forces showed fierce resistance to the occupiers and Russia has failed to meet its targets. Russian occupation forces continue to fire on Ukrainian cities, causing increasing civilian casualties.
More than 3.8 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the start of the war.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has provoked a general one condemnation of the international communityagainst Russia is new sanctions have been introduced. Many Western companies have decided to leave the Russian market.
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