Nearly 100,000 Norwegians who voted for Labor a year ago will now vote for the Conservatives, recent data shows. – Labor has lost the battle for the middle class, says the researcher.
A review of seven national measurements over the past two weeks – VG’s party barometer included, gives the following average figures:
- Measurements made so far in December show that Ap Mr. 119,000 of their 2021 voters on the bourgeois side. Nearly 100,000 of these right alone.
- ap cone 33,000 2021 voters for SV and Rødt. That’s double what Ap had lost in November, but then only a quarter of Ap’s loss to the right.
- In total, the ruling parties AP and SP have lost as many as 207,000 voters since 2021 to the bourgeois side.
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It is Gabriel Steinsbakk, who also provides calculations to pollofpollswho did the calculations.
– Labor is in a dilemma, where they lose far more voters to the right than to the left. To maintain a majority, it would make sense to court right-wing voters, but the PA’s policy under Støre would probably have been the opposite, says research leader Johannes Bergh of the Institute for Social Research in Oslo.
– Ap is at a crossroads, where they drip both to the right and to the left, and far more to the right. Støre has to decide which leak is more important to plug, right or left, says Jonas Stein, an associate professor of political science at the University of Tromsø.
– It seems that it is more important to seal the leak right, because that leak is bigger?
– Yes, to win the elections it is very important. But then it must be weighed against the type of political project they want to implement. If they want to move economic policy to the left, as Støre pointed out, then this is a political priority. But for now, it seems to be SV and Rødt who have benefited in terms of voters, says Stein.
Adds:
– Losing so many voters on the right is much more dangerous in terms of gaining a majority in the election, because the parties they lose votes to are on the left: SV and Rødt are, after all, part of the red-green bloc and will never put up Erna Solberg as prime minister.
The fight with the right side revolves a lot around the fight for the middle class, where the right side has tried to create an image that the government does not give priority to those earning more than NOK 750,000; they are the ones underneath that will get something in tax breaks.
– Many in the middle class probably think that Støre and the government don’t give them priority and that could be why voters are disappearing on the right. These are the voters Labor depends on to secure a majority, says Bergh and stresses that this is the dilemma of the dilemma.
– It was a successful formula for the left to address inequality and social equality and they were successful in last year’s election by focusing on that.
Jonas Stein in Tromsø says it also affects many people earning less than NOK 750,000.
– The average income in Norway is NOK 610,000. Many of those earning less than NOK 750,000 are young people and recent graduates who in the long run are likely to have aspirations of earning more, so I think it is fair that many in the middle class feel that Labor is not giving them financial priority, and that this is one of the reasons why they would prefer to vote bourgeois. They just lost the battle for the middle class.
Background data from VG’s Party Barometer supports the flight of voters from government parties to the Conservative Party:
- Høyre, which had declined in smaller municipalities in 2021, is now bigger even in municipalities with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants
- The right is larger in all parts of the country, including the Ap bastions in Trøndelag and northern Norway. In last year’s election, the Conservative Party received 7 to 16 per cent of support in the five northernmost counties. Now 34 percent in the same counties say they will vote for Erna & co.
Here’s the data from VG’s latest Party Barometer. Article continues below graphic:
Johannes Bergh says the biggest challenge for Støre is probably not choosing between left and right, but the lack of good communication and leadership people trust.
– I think voters don’t think Støre has given clear enough answers on the electricity crisis, inflation and economic issues that worry people. They want clear directions and solutions. It’s also partly about communication.
– In the run-up to Christmas, when electricity prices are at record highs, it doesn’t help to show that Norway already has the best electricity subsidy scheme in Europe and that they will not increase support?
– It is important for voters both to have answers to problems and to indicate a direction – to understand the seriousness of the situation. It’s about how you talk, he says, adding:
– It is not true that the Conservative Party has completely different solutions to these problems than the Labor Party – it is about how to communicate, show understanding and act.
– What advice would you give to Støre and Vedum?
– The most important advice is to be a clear governing party. This is where Labor struggled; their reputation as a governing party has been called into question. More than going left or right, I think the most important thing is to show leadership to win back voters, says Bergh.
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