They promise not to introduce lockdown, but restrictions are already being strengthened everywhere
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The Ukrainian economy will lose 0.3% of GDP per month if a general lockdown is introduced.
The National Bank has made a forecast of the impact of the introduction of red quarantine zones in individual regions, as well as throughout the country. Forecast published in report for October.
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“The likely strengthening of quarantine measures due to the spread of new variants of the coronavirus and the longer duration of the pandemic is one of the main risks of the forecast,” the document says.
The central bank calculated that the introduction of a hard lockdown for one month across the country would lead to an additional 0.3 p.p. GDP losses this year.
“In the event of a hard lockdown, the need for additional budgetary spending will also increase. At the same time, the negative impact will have more impact on supply than on demand, which could lead to increased pro-inflationary pressures,” the report says.
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Note that the authorities have stated many times that the lockdown will not be introduced. But there is a condition under which such a development of events is possible – if all regions will fall into the red zone for a long time.
From October 30, there will be 15 regions in the red zone. Only two regions remain in the yellow zone.
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