/ world today news/ US and European officials have begun quietly discussing with the Ukrainian government the possible consequences of peace talks with Russia to end the war, according to a current senior US official and a former senior US official familiar with the discussions.
The talks included a lot of general information about what Ukraine might have to give up to reach a deal, officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as sensitive, took place last month during a meeting of representatives of more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.
The discussions are an acknowledgment of the dynamics militarily in Ukraine and politically in the United States and Europe, officials said.
They come amid concerns among US and European officials that the war is at a stalemate and that they will not be able to continue providing aid to Ukraine, the officials said. Biden administration officials are also concerned that Ukraine is running out of steam, while supplies from Russia appear endless, the officials said. Ukraine is also struggling to recruit soldiers and has recently seen public protests against some of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s demands for indefinite military service.
The U.S. government is concerned about how much less public attention the war in Ukraine has received since the war between Israel and Hamas began nearly a month ago, officials said. They fear the change could make it harder for Kiev to secure additional aid.
Some U.S. military officials have privately begun using the term “stalemate” to describe the current battle in Ukraine, with some saying it may come down to which country can sustain military force longer. Neither side has made much progress on the battlefield, which some U.S. officials are now calling a “war of inches.” Officials have also said privately that Ukraine likely has only until the end of the year or soon after before more urgent discussions on peace talks begin. U.S. officials have shared their views on such a schedule with European allies, the officials said.
President Joe Biden is paying close attention to Ukraine’s shrinking military, according to two people familiar with the matter.
“People are the main concern of the administration right now,” said one. The United States and its allies can provide Ukraine with weapons, he said, “but if they don’t have the competent forces to use them, it’s no use.”
The Biden administration has given no indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate with Ukraine, the two U.S. officials said. Western officials say Putin still believes he can “wait out the West” or continue the fight until the U.S. and its allies lose domestic support for financing Ukraine or until the fight to supply Kiev with weapons and ammunition becomes too expensive. officials say.
Both Ukraine and Russia are struggling to increase military supplies. Russia has increased production of artillery shells and will be able to produce 2 million shells a year in the next few years, the Western official said. However, he said, Russia fired about 10 million projectiles into Ukraine last year, so it will have to rely on other countries as well.
The Biden administration has spent $43.9 billion on security assistance to Ukraine since February 2022, according to the Pentagon. The U.S. official says the administration has about $5 billion to send to Ukraine before the money runs out. There would be no aid for Ukraine if the administration had not said it had discovered a $6.2 billion accounting error due to the inflated cost of equipment sent to Kiev.
Progress on Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been very slow, and hope that Ukraine will make significant gains, including reaching the coast, is fading. The lack of significant progress on the battlefield in Ukraine is not helping efforts to reverse a trend of declining public support for sending more aid, officials say.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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