NBA Preview Houston Rockets.
After the James Harden era, a new era began in Houston that continues to this day. The beard shaped his franchise like no one else did during that time.
The squad, the style of play and the system were tailored to him. His then coach Mike d’Antoni and GM Daryl Morey did everything they could to keep their superstar happy.
What about the restart of the rockets?
How do they plan to launch the new rocket at the Mission Control Center in Houston?
What does that one look like?
Is it already (half) finished and just needs to be refueled? What was learned from the heliocentric alignment experiment and Morey Ball?
The James Harden “System”?
Morey Ball, Heliocentric Offensive Scheme. James Harden. For a long time, these were synonyms for the Houston Rockets.
Retrospective with success. They didn’t win the title.
But they managed to get a Golden State Warriors team around Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, certainly one of the best (evil tongues say league boring and unfairly good) basketball teams ever put together, to hang out during the regular season and throughout the playoffs pushing yourself close to the brink of defeat.
However, it didn’t quite happen in the end. Chris Paul had to watch Game 7 injured. They set an NBA record in this very game and missed 27 three-pointers in a row in one game and lost.
The next year they failed again in the playoffs against Golden State. This time, however, clearly and so only CP3 left the ship. A few high-profile strip club searches later, James Harden followed suit and made his way to Brooklyn, chicken wings in hand.
The James Harden era was over. You can’t completely dismiss Beard’s sense of humor here.
Morally at least borderline. But as with almost everything about James Harden, there’s a big entertainment factor involved.
.. except for Nets fans..
Assets, rebuild, a new era
The sellout of players began. The Win-Now squad should be transformed into a younger team with more potential. That should work too. You got a lot of draft picks for the seasoned professionals. The coach was changed. And, as is often the case in a rebuild, they started to play badly “by chance” in order to secure a good starting position for the lottery.
Which brings us to today.
After three long years in the bottom of the table, the Rockets made a jump from around 20 wins to over 40 wins last year. The squad had been filled with interesting young players over the course of three years.
They were able to sign point guard Fred VanVleet and defensive specialist Dillon Brooks. Combo guard Jalen Green was drafted at number 2 in the 2021 NBA draft. Just a year later in the 2022 NBA Draft at number 3 in Jabari Smith Jr., a potentially versatile stretch big with an equally potentially elite defense.
Likewise, draft pick number 16 from 2021, Alperen Sengün, found his way to Houston via trade and was a real stroke of luck last season. Sengün’s performance ceiling is primarily offensive and extremely promising at the moment.
Full steam towards mediocrity with a new face?
The new Houston seemed fresh, dynamic and even fun to watch at times with its intensity. Unlike some others, as a young team they tried to create a defensive identity.
With Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and the rookie Amen Thompson drafted in 2023, the personnel has been assembled for this.
But the plan has only worked to a limited extent so far. In the end there was a sobering result of 11th place. If you have big demands.
But if you’re a team that has to find, reinvent and rebuild itself, mediocrity in the best basketball league in the world is simply a success!
Yes, that might be an exception to end up in 11th place with a .50 record. But it shows how strong the Western Conference and how high the talent density is right now.
As a rebuilding team, achieving a balanced balance sheet and as many wins as defeats is remarkable. And definitely not bad for ticket sales.
High picks, mediocre outcome
You had the right to choose a player in the top 4 of the draft FOUR times in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. And they did a solid job.
Jalen Green is a combo guard with great scoring potential, but struggles with inefficiency, tunnel vision and poor defense. Three years of NBA experience don’t seem to have changed that. Classic combo guard.
This off-season’s contract, which at first glance seems quite severe, is quite tolerable thanks to the player option in the final year of the contract.
Overcommitting yourself contractually to combo guards is often a difficult proposition. Especially if they fit the cliché of the defensively weak ballerman who lacks oncourt IQ, like Green. At least in phases.
It is certainly doubtful that Green will exercise his option in 2027 in times of increasing cap space. A prolific scorer can probably achieve more in the league. Until then, both Houston and Green have more than enough time to see if they’re a good fit.
Especially since Houston is probably very aware that it is better not to be “too good” in the next few years because of their own draft picks. You do have protections, but not with an infinite range.
These are exactly the kind of years in which a Green contract of this size doesn’t hurt. For a franchise that would be in a contender phase, this contract would be very damaging.
Jabari Smith Jr. is an impressively versatile big, with good abilities on defense but with clear limitations on offense. A jump in efficiency can be seen between the rookie season and the sophomore year.
But whether the famous Year 3 Jump will take place is still up in the air. The threesome urgently needs to improve.
Besides, this jump wouldn’t make his stats go through the roof. Rather, they would get closer to the league average. This shows that there is a lot to be done to create the threshold of a serious stretch big.
Just like Amen Thompson, whose potential playmaking skills were completely overestimated last season, but are now almost overlooked and whose existing offensive package is limited by limitations and only slightly cushioned by the strong defense. Is a defensive first guard really worth a top 4 pick?
Thompson’s offensive and defensive oncourt IQ is absolutely there, as are his physical fundamentals. If you learn the fundamentals of the offense and even implement a relevantly reliable jump shot, then Thompson is a huge reinforcement. Even if his decision making has not yet been beyond all doubt.
What this young player brings to the table in terms of things that you CANNOT train, but mostly have or not, actually exceeds the value of the things that you can improve through training and also urgently need to improve.
If you look at the Thompson brothers, Green, Kuminga, Scoot Henderson, a picture of training within the G-League runs like a common thread. Physical phenomena with actually strong skills and on-court IQ, but they are astonishingly raw and unfortunately often remain so.
Although the competition in the G League isn’t necessarily worse than in college. It has been a long time since the famous “Fundamentals” at college were taught to the same quality as before or, per se, “better” than in the G-League.
How in a “one and done” system?
So is it just a coincidence that at least these players come from the G-League so raw? It is striking. But there is no space here to discuss that. Because there are also enough counter-examples for these players.
Sheppard und Adams: Best of Both Worlds?
What you can’t deny Houston is her rigor. This offseason, they continue to stick to their plan.
Defense? Check.
Versatile wings and bigs? Check.
Offensive volume scorer? Check.
So what’s still missing?
Correct:
In third place, they drafted Reed Sheppard, a 20-year-old sharpshooter who could certainly work well offensively in the future. A potentially elite shooter, with a good attitude and an incredibly precise lateral eye for oncourt control. Very good ideas in playmaking. Good execution.
If Sheppard were just 10-15 cm longer and, above all, a little wider in the frame, we would be talking about one of THE top point guard talents in the league. This man should be able to develop a decent defense and hold on. Then VanVleet’s heir has already been found on number one.
Houston should tackle this sooner rather than later and see if they can ship VanVleet along with the club option for some useful talent, expiring contracts or picks. Whether this will be successful given the amount of the contract is more questionable.
However, you could also simply let the club option expire, let him go specifically and participate in the upcoming free agency with the freed cap.
On the other hand, VanVleet might be a good teacher for Sheppard, who is also somewhat inferior in the frame. Not to mention the general and positive locker room impact of a VanVleet.
They also signed Steven Adams, a league veteran, defensive anchor and model professional who will certainly be good for the team not only defensively but, above all, in terms of character. And if in doubt, it can also possibly reduce the physical stress on the rough diamond Sengün.
Now the question arises:
Houston, where are you?
The Rockets have a wide squad, other young talents like Cam Whitmore, Jae’Sean Tate and Tari Eason haven’t even been mentioned yet, but are at best still a few years away from a possible breakthrough. Especially since everyone mentioned has had massive health problems so far.
They have experienced professionals who can lead the team. There are also young players with development potential. And a philosophy that is designed for balance and grind.
The days of the heliocentric three-pointer, dunk, layup, free throw dogma are a thing of the past. It has been understood that the mix of a roster makes the difference. Provides mutually cushioning spaces for on-point and delayed development. And for synergies between positions.
All in all, there are gaps in the capspace management of the contracts.
Well done Houston!
Keep fueling the rocket and then the countdown can begin… when the talents can ignite their next stage in the race to the moon and stars.
forecast
Good (not good?) End:
Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green are making a huge leap forward, Reed Sheppard shoots 50% three-pointers like he did in college and works straight away, Adams stays healthy and takes on the dirty work behind, with, or from Sengün.
You reach 45+ wins and then let’s see what they will be good for in the coming season.
But that also means you might fall out of the lottery and run the risk that Sam Presti can do Sam Presti things in Oklahoma again.
Bad (not bad?!) End:
Reed Sheppard can’t cope with the physicality of the NBA, Jalen Green continues to shoot inefficiently in his tunnel and when he does pass, it’s to his no less inefficient partner Jabari Smith Jr..
Steven Adams is seriously injured again and VanVleet also misses a large part of the season. Expensive mascots, especially VanVleet.
The team’s success would suffer and player development would stagnate, but at least you would then go back into the lottery to hopefully draft the next promising player…who you should then get developed.
