NB raised the stock repo rate by 75 basis points to 5.75%, while 50 bb. In contrast to the usual, it has accelerated the pace of policy changes. The reason is the continuing strong pressure on price growth, which is washed away in the east inflanch oekvnch.
According to nov prognzy NB this year
inflation doshne v prmru 13.1%, zatmco rst economy will only be 0.8% in vi. Influence high and persistent inflation prognza NB nabd k rstu rokovch
rates mrn nad 8%.
Bank Board due to weak risks development of the economy However, it will most likely not be so drastic. st vnjch inflanch
the pressure will probably put her off now. At the June meeting we say outside
rates in the range of 50-75 bb and sweat stability at least until the end of this year.
May session esk nrodn bank surprised by the renewed acceleration of the pace of strengthening policy changes. The Bank Board decided to call the stock repo rates by 75 bp to 5.75%. The ratio of the vote remained unchanged compared to the previous sittings, when five central banks voted in favor for the bell by 75 bp, while the other two again preferred the stability of the years
rates.
Even before the meeting itself, despite the great uncertainty, it was clear that both our forecast, the consensus of analysts and investors in the financial market both predicted rst rates about 50 bb. These predictions were amplified by the statements of the central banks, who before the meeting talked about it only fine years rates.
The Bank Board is particularly impressed by the new forecast NBwhich in its basic screen growth inflation k 15% y / y. For your insight
inflation contributed to her at the end of the year (regular intergovernmental growth
spotebitelskch prices inil 12,7 %, zatmco NB expected 9.8%), as well as a strong price increase commodities na svtovch trzch due to wolves on Ukraine.
For the whole year central bank oekv prmrnou inflation in vi 13.1%, compared to 8.5% in the previous forecast. We predict 12.6%. As Governor Rusnok announced her after the new meeting, a new forecast NB sweat with him economy. She should according to this year central bank growth of only 0.8%, while in the previous forecast expected growth HDP o 3,0 %.
NB was very pessimistic development of the economy in Q1, when it estimated its quarter-on-quarter stagnation. Her pessimism was not fulfilled when the preliminary estimate of S showed growth HDP o 0.7%. Pro Q2 ek NB quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.2% and in Q3 its decrease to 0.2%, which is roughly in line with the forecast. If he takes the weight better economic development in Q1, a new forecast NB implies its rst of 1.6%. My letos ekme 1.8%. Revize prognz NB so it goes stagflanm.
Dvoutdenn repo rate according to the forecasting model
NB in the second quarter it should be above 8% on average. That would imply a necessity for the whole quarter outside the annual rates about 300 bb. The reason for such a strong response is the model ‘s effort to get to the new political horizon (Q2-Q3 2023) inflation back to close to 2% duty.
The reaction is surprising koruna exchange ratewhich strengthens from 24.64 even at such a sharp increase CZK / EUR in Q1 only at 24.00 CZK / EUR in Q2, ie by 2.6%. The exchange rate according to the forecast should be maintained NB then move and to the end
year 2023.
Banking work in the words of Governor Rusnok she did not proceed so vigorously outside the annual ratespointing to the model NBdue to the risks of its performance economy. He will probably be affected by how
high inflationso so the negative effects associated with the wolf on
Ukraine. Like this high years rates in addition, they could be a risk to financial stability.
Zven o 75 bb je tud kompromisem mezi reakc na nadle se zvyujc inflate caution and caution against unnecessary action that could pose a problem for the stagnant economy.
The Bank Board will thus follow the alternative forecast scene NBits outlines were also presented. According to him, she should repo rate climb to about 5.5% and stay there until the end of five years. Inflation in that case to go at the end of this year was above 14% y / y and its 2% duty would reach and in 2024.
This scn in other words k, e NB be added
inflate pressures. Governor Rusnok admitted that, according to the Bank Board, the risks of the alternative scene are inflationwhich proves and vraznj from rates (75 bb vs 50 bb v alternativnm scni).
Myslme yes, e NB picks up rates ride in June, about 50-75 bb. Rusnok said that he would NB she could now ignore external price pressures, on their spillover into other prices and households inflation bag respond mus.
Konkrtn mra ervnovho outside the annual rates will depart from Whichwhich will be from economy pichzet. In the second half of this year, we anticipate a slowdown inflation and stability over the years
rates. With their dream return to politically neutral equals would be central bank
could start in the first half of the first year, but a significant risk is now a decline.
An important factor for the further development of monetary policy will be the changing position of the governor and one other member of the bank board, which will take place on July 1.
Central Bank so she announced that again the volume in which the sale vnosy z foreign exchange reserves. Specifically, Governor Rusnok did not state. ekl vak, e NB This is not the bottom of the specific exchange rate
crown, even though it is aware that these operations have an impact on its value. Furthermore, the Bank Board is likely to maintain its reservation as using the exchange rate as an additional policy instrument. Compared to previous editions, when NB she claimed that she did not want to influence the value of the exchange rate by operations in the day, there is only a certain shift in the furnace.
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