Thai stock market There is still ‘volatility’. It can be seen that on 24 Jan. the index was able to turn positive by more than 20 points due to political factors. But it came back down again the next day (25 Jan.)
Mr. Poj Harinsut, Chief Executive Officer Wan Asset Management Company It is considered that the pressure factor on the Thai stock market comes from the investments of foreign investors (fund flow) who continue to sell Thai stocks from the previous year when they sold more than 600 billion baht, and in the past 10 years, foreigners have sold Thai stocks. and more than 9 hundred billion baht
This was partly due to earnings per share (EPS) of companies listed on the Thai stock market being reduced to 97 baht per share from 102 baht per share.
In addition, we are still waiting for measures to stimulate the economy that come from government investment. Waiting to be pushed out, it is seen that public investment will be another important factor that will help stimulate the Thai economy well. After the tourism sector has recovered well But there is still a lack of driving force from government investment as a supporting factor.
Mr. Poj sees Thai stocks like sick people. but also believe The Thai stock index has dropped this time. It may not fall below 1,300 points. It is seen that the index is still standing. The resistance line has been adjusted down to 1,580 points at the end of this year from the originally expected 1,600 points from various pressure factors.
Recommend investing in stocks only 10% of the stock portfolio Highlights of REIT-Infra
Investment recommendationsThai stock market Investment proportion is 10% of the portfolio invested in stocks. and may increase investment in alternative assets in the Thai stock market, especiallyReal estate funds andInfrastructure FundThat in the previous year the price had dropped approximately 30% is interesting. This allows investors to invest and have the opportunity to receive a high dividend yield of 8-9% as interest rates have passed their peak. This eases the pressure on returns from real estate funds and infrastructure funds. Two funds that are considered interesting are recommended: CPNREIT and DIF, which can have an investment proportion of approximately 15%.
Recommend diversifying investments away from ‘Chinese stocks’
As for the investment perspective inChinese stock market Mr. Poj sees that there is still concern. Even though GDP has grown by 5%, Chinese stocks have not increased. and adjusted downwards strongly There is still concern about the Domino effect from China’s large business sector that still has a chance of collapsing.
Therefore, investing in Asian stock markets He sees that the stock markets that are still interesting to invest in in Asia include the Japanese stock market. Indian stock market or the Vietnamese stock market Along with finding opportunities to invest in stocks related to AI technology in order to seize the opportunity to create returns according to world trends.
Default bonds only 1%, confirming no impact on the market
As for the issue of concern regarding the risk of the Thai bond market, That affects investors’ confidence in investing, but Mr. Poj sees that bonds in Thailand that have defaulted on payments account for only 1% of the entire market, making it not have an impact on the overall industry. And some businesses are just delaying requests to extend the repayment period for bonds that have matured, such as construction business. The work may be delayed until next year. I would like to extend the period for repayment of principal. But still paying interest as usual, it is seen that it does not have much impact.
Investing in Thai debt instruments is still recommended to invest in the investment grade debt market and avoid High Yield Bonds. If investors want to invest in High Yield Bonds, it is recommended to invest in High Yield Bonds of the United States, which are still interesting. more than and the risk is not yet very high This can be seen from the US stock market index continuing to make all time highs, reflecting the US economy and the strong profits of listed companies in the US and still seeing continued growth.
Looking at ‘digital wallets’ increasing debt and risking the entire system
As for stimulating domestic consumption through the 10,000 baht digital wallet project, Mr. Poj sees it as a one-time short-term economic stimulus. and there is a risk of increasing Thailand’s public debt. Because there must be a source of funds from borrowing from a financial institution. which will affect foreign institutions There is a chance that Thailand’s credit rating will be lowered. from increased public debt Affecting Thailand’s ability to repay debt.
And as a result, businesses in the country will have to have increased financial costs. from the downgrade of the country’s credit rating As a result, borrowing money for investment by domestic businesses will require higher interest rates. This will affect the profits of listed companies (Ltd.) which will be further reduced.
2024-01-27 06:00:00
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