Navigating the Complexities of the Second Cold War: Insights from Neil Ferguson

We are currently in a second cold war, not a third, but the second cold war is going much faster than the first. Bloomberg columnist Neil Ferguson writes about this.

If we consider that Russia’s specific activity in Ukraine is equivalent to the Korean War of 1950-1953, then, according to Ferguson, we have now passed the second Cuban Missile Crisis – over Taiwan – and entered a period of détente, which will last. it took two decades. Since last November’s summit in Woodside, California, Beijing appears eager to avoid confrontation and wants to engage in “real, if cold” dialogue with the Americans who are remember 1969-1972.

However, Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel in October 2023 took us back to 1973.

“In short, in the second Cold War we seem to be getting the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s squeezed together into a rather confusing mix. Then, as now, the Cold War had an ideological dimension: at least some Republicans returned to talking about defending freedom. For Putin and Xi Jinping it’s just code for CIA-backed color conversion. Then, as now, the Cold War was a technological race, although the frontiers of innovation today include artificial intelligence and quantum computing, as well as nuclear weapons and Star Wars (missile defense).

Then, as now, the Cold War led to inflation and internal divisions. Then, as now, it is very important that China and Russia remain united and not at each other’s throats. Their current unity is a real headache for the United States and its allies… Then, as it is now, there are not two, but three factions, because it would rather several countries to be non-aligned rather than choose a side. ..” notes the viewer.

He then highlights the biggest differences between the first and second Cold War.

First, China is a much more dangerous economic competitor than the USSR ever was.

Second, the West is economically linked to the Middle Kingdom through a vast network of supply chains, which was never the case with the USSR.

Third, the West is much weaker in terms of production capacity.

Fourth, US fiscal policy is “on a completely unsustainable path.”

Fifth, the alliances formed by the West may be weaker than they were in the first Cold War.

“In Europe, Germany is even more skeptical of US leadership in the Atlantic Alliance than it was during Ostpolitik. In Asia, the US may think that the Quad has turned India into an Asian ally, but I seriously doubt that the Indian Prime Minister does not. Narendra Modi he will answer the phone if Washington asks for help in the Taiwan crisis. “ – writes Ferguson.

For all these reasons, the West should not be too confident about the outcome of the second Cold War. In particular, if China blocks or attacks Taiwan this year, it will find the United States unprepared.

“However, there is another similarity to the first Cold War that I left above. Now, as then, there is a bipartisan consensus in Washington that the communist power is a real threat. The political question that remains to be answered this year is who will best face this threat.