Late-Summer COVID Surge Adds Stress to New York City
As the late-summer COVID surge hits New York City, residents are facing even more stress during an already busy time of year. With undervaccinated kids returning to classrooms next week, concerns are rising about the lack of precautions compared to previous pandemic-era school years. Adding to the worries is the arrival of the new BA.2.86 variant, which may be more likely to bypass people’s pre-existing immunity, making them vulnerable to reinfection.
However, determining the severity of the surge has become increasingly difficult due to changes in testing and tracking methods. Traditional data indicators such as cases, test positivity, and community transmission levels no longer hold the same significance as before. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health, explains, “It really is hard to look at cases and conclude much beyond whether community transmission is on the rise or not. It doesn’t really help us quantify what really is a surge.”
To navigate this uncertain landscape, experts recommend consulting more robust measures of COVID transmission, such as hospitalizations and the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in sewage samples. Hospitalizations and deaths provide a clearer picture of the pandemic’s impact over time. Additionally, analyzing wastewater can offer valuable insights into the spread of the virus and help track variants.
While wastewater data is available on the state health department’s website, interpreting the information can be challenging. Experts suggest looking at county-level trends over time to better understand current transmission patterns. As for vaccinations, instead of focusing solely on the primary-series vaccination rate, experts advise assessing the proportion of New Yorkers who are up-to-date on their COVID vaccines, including receiving the most recent booster. Currently, only 16% of New Yorkers have received the bivalent booster, and a new one is expected to be released in September.
In addition to these data-driven approaches, experts recommend paying attention to social cues within personal networks. If multiple people in your workplace or social circle are getting sick, it’s a sign that the virus is present and precautions should be taken in social situations. Taking extra precautions when interacting with vulnerable individuals, keeping at-home COVID tests on hand, and testing multiple times if experiencing symptoms are also recommended.
However, the evolving data landscape has made it more challenging to assess COVID risk and adjust behavior accordingly. Dr. Wafaa El-Sadr, a professor of epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, acknowledges the complexity of the situation, stating, “Now it’s a lot more complex than it used to be. We have to find ways we can pull together all these different metrics into an analysis that helps people think about what they should do tomorrow.”
To stay informed, residents can refer to the newly updated COVID data dashboard, which provides regular updates on hospitalizations, variants, and booster rates.
How can monitoring sewage samples help in assessing the overall prevalence of the virus in a community?
De more accurate and concrete data points to assess the impact of the surge and the severity of the virus. Monitoring sewage samples can also reveal the overall prevalence of the virus in a community, providing a clearer picture of the situation.
The late-summer surge has raised concerns about the upcoming school year, especially with many children who remain unvaccinated returning to in-person learning. Unlike previous years, where strict precautions were in place, the lack of universal masking and social distancing guidelines in some schools adds to the worries. The BA.2.86 variant, which has arrived in the city, is also causing concern as it may have the ability to evade pre-existing immunity and lead to reinfections.
Despite the challenges in tracking the surge, health experts emphasize the importance of staying vigilant and taking necessary precautions. Vaccination remains the most effective tool in reducing the risk of severe illness and hospitalization. Individuals who have not yet received their COVID-19 vaccine are strongly encouraged to do so.
Additionally, adhering to basic preventive measures such as wearing masks in indoor settings, practicing good hand hygiene, and avoiding crowded places can help limit the spread of the virus. It is also recommended to stay informed about the latest developments and guidance from health authorities to make well-informed decisions.
While the late-summer surge brings added stress to New York City, it is essential for individuals and communities to work together to mitigate the impact. By following recommended protocols and prioritizing public health, New Yorkers can navigate through this challenging period and protect themselves and their loved ones.
It’s crucial to stay informed and adapt our strategies as the situation evolves. Let’s prioritize the safety and well-being of our communities.