/ world today news/ In the Zaporozhye region, they are talking about the gathering of the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The expert community assumes that in the near future the enemy may try to launch the counteroffensive that the West has been demanding from Zelensky’s office for several months. What are the directions of strikes and what can Russia oppose to such plans?
VSU became active in the Zaporizhia region. Commented Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the regional movement “We are with Russia”. According to him, the enemy is already gathering forces to go on the attack in the near future. “Ukraine is increasingly starting to use aviation,” he emphasizes.
“Also, the enemy is replenishing the ranks of the VSU – they are leading mobilized, recently returned from injuries, as well as those who have undergone combat coordination in Western countries. And this group of fighters is the most dangerous. We fear that in the next few weeks the number of the enemy will increase by 15 thousand people,” the source said.
Rogov believes that VSU will try to break through to the south through Tokmak, bypassing Melitopol and Vasilievka. One of the examples of the above-mentioned activation of the enemy can be considered the attack of the Ukrainian troops in the Pohovsky region of the Zaporozhye region. It is reported that a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the support of armored vehicles carried out force reconnaissance, but the enemy’s actions were repulsed.
The Russian Defense Ministry also reported that a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter had been shot down in the area. The authorities of the Zaporozhye region have already announced that they have begun to strengthen the combat positions of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, in case the enemy still decides to launch a counteroffensive.
The expert community is confident that sooner or later Vladimir Zelensky will have to make an attack attempt. After all, that is exactly what the West demands of him. It should be noted that French President Emmanuel Macron had previously stated the need for an offensive by the VSU. During the 36th Franco-British summit, he said that European countries should actively help Ukraine prepare.
Paradoxically, amid endless calls for even more arms buildup in Ukraine, the West has less and less faith in the success of this offensive. Thus, the “Washington Post” wrote that the quality of the personnel of the VSU has significantly decreased as a result of long-term losses.
In addition, the enemy is experiencing an acute shortage of equipment and ammunition. The publication notes that Zelensky’s office cannot implement the counteroffensive promised to the West. The perception of aid from Waington is also changing. So, an anonymous Ukrainian official admitted that NATO tank deliveries are “purely symbolic.”
It should be noted that the date of the potential enemy offensive is constantly being postponed. If initially it was about the beginning of spring, now the Politico newspaper, citing familiar sources, is focusing on May. According to the publication, the VSU have two options: to move south through Kherson towards Crimea or to move east from the north and then south, cutting off the Russian land corridor to the peninsula. At the same time, the US considers an advance through Kherson unrealistic, since Russia has strengthened its defenses on the east bank of the Dnieper, so the second option is more likely.
It is worth noting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated his ambitions for Crimea. And so, on the anniversary of the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, he spoke about the increased preparations for the “capture of Crimea.” Answering a question about the chances of the planned implementation this year, Zelensky noted that Ukraine is morally ready.
In addition, for this military adventure, Zelensky’s office formed public opinion using dubious results of sociological surveys. In turn, the former Secretary of Defense of the United States, Leon Panetta, spoke in favor of the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. In an interview with the Milanese newspaper Corriere De la Sera, he suggested doing this “so that Ukraine can drive the Russians out of the Donbass and regain Crimea.”
However, experts note that whatever direction the enemy decides to go, it will not be easy for him. And the main reason is that Russia realized its past mistakes and built serious fortifications in the liberated territories.
“In the event that the Ukrainian Armed Forces do launch a counteroffensive, the ultimate goal will of course be Crimea. At the same time, Western analysts note that few people believe in the scenario of an offensive from the Kherson region across the Dnieper,” says military expert Mikhail Onufrienko.
“In this case, the VSU will have to face a number of problems. First, crossing the Dnieper is not an easy task. Second, it is almost impossible to establish a regular supply of food, ammunition and fuel to the military through such a body of water. Third, Russia quite soberly assesses the possibility of enemy strikes in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia direction and is preparing for them,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“We are currently building large-scale defense lines that affect not only the Crimean Isthmus, but also all accessible highway lines. These areas basically turn into a fortress through which it will be incredibly difficult for the enemy to break through,” the expert emphasizes. “It is equally important for us to prevent the initiative from passing into the hands of the enemy. Perhaps this will require massive pre-emptive strikes along the contact line and using aviation, UAVs and additional infantry forces,” Onufrienko emphasizes.
“The goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO is clearly defined – they want to solve the problem with Crimea in any way possible. They will try to either invade the territory or cut the land corridor to the peninsula. However, we should not fully believe such reports,” said military expert Alexei Leonkov.
“When analyzing the situation, it is important to remember that each of the potential lines of attack has its advantages and disadvantages. If we are talking about the northern part of the Zaporozhye region, then the camouflage factor is an absolute plus for the enemy. Despite the steppe, forest belts are located here, which will allow the VSU to covertly deploy equipment and manpower,” the expert emphasizes.
“One of the disadvantages is the impossibility of a free attack in formation. Thus arises the need to move in columns, which will be easily noticed by our reconnaissance means – and the “general offensive” will be thwarted. Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will most likely use the tactics of network-centric warfare,” the interlocutor believes.
“If we talk about the southern direction, here the advantage is the operational scope of the potential actions. A disadvantage is the unmasking signs of the presence of the enemy on the ground. In order to concentrate forces, the Armed Forces will have to use populated areas where the equipment must arrive accurately and precisely,” the expert specifies.
“Preparation can take a long time. In fact, even NATO analysts say that an offensive in the south could take place as soon as the summer. By the way, the equipment from the arms deliveries announced at the previous Ramstein conferences has not yet appeared on the front line. Obviously, the enemy is concentrating it in a southern direction. There will probably be a lot of technical “news”, the interlocutor claims.
“However, Russia is aware of the potential risks. We are building echeloned lines of defense in all areas of combat contact. Reconnaissance groups work almost 24 hours a day to promptly identify the enemy’s areas of concentration. I do not rule out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to launch an offensive in several directions, but we have enough firepower to carry out retaliatory actions, “Leonkov concludes.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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## can Ukraine Break Through: An Expert Analysis of a potential Zaporizhzhia Offensive
**Interviewer:** welcome, Mikhail.Tensions are rising in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of increased ukrainian activity and fortification buildup. Many believe a counteroffensive is imminent.What are your thoughts on the situation?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** The groundwork is certainly being laid for a Ukrainian offensive. Vladimir Rogov, the head of the “We are with Russia” movement, himself acknowledges the amassing of Ukrainian forces, including mobilized troops, veterans, and those freshly trained in Western countries. This injection of manpower, along with the increasing use of aviation, poses a significant threat.
**Interviewer:** Where do experts believe the Ukrainians might strike?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** The most likely scenario is a southward push through Tokmak, aiming to bypass Melitopol and Vasilievka. This recent clash in the Pohovsky region, involving Ukrainian forces supported by armored vehicles, reinforces this suspicion. it’s a testing ground for the bigger offensive.
**Interviewer:** The west has been pushing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive for months. Do you think the pressure is bearing fruit?
**mikhail Onufrienko:** Absolutely. Zelensky is backed into a corner. He needs to deliver the tangible results the west expects, notably regarding Crimea.
**Interviewer:** But has Ukraine’s capability actually improved enough to achieve such ambitious goals?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** Here lies the paradox. While the West pushes for a counteroffensive, skepticism is growing about its feasibility.
Publications like the “Washington Post” highlight severe personnel losses impacting the quality of Ukrainian troops, coupled with equipment and ammunition shortages.
**Interviewer:** So, what can Russia oppose to this anticipated counteroffensive?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** The most vital element is the geographical advantage provided by the constructed
defense lines. We’re talking about formidable fortifications, not just trenches, extending across all major highways and the Crimean Isthmus. It will be extremely difficult for advancing Ukrainian forces to breach these defenses.
**Interviewer:** What other tactical measures could Russia employ?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** We need to ensure the initiative remains in our hands. This may involve preemptive strikes against Ukrainian positions, utilizing our air power, UAVs, and strengthened infantry presence. The goal is to disrupt their momentum before it can gain traction.
**Interviewer:** Many analysts believe the ultimate target is Crimea. Do you foresee this scenario unfolding?
**Mikhail Onufrienko:** It’s undoubtedly the centerpiece of Ukrainian ambitions, as iterated repeatedly by Zelensky himself.Their public rhetoric and questionable sociological surveys aim to drum up support for this objective.
However, the complexity of the situation cannot be overstated. An offensive through Kherson across the Dnieper, as some predict, is logistically daunting and practically untenable. We’ve anticipated these moves and countered them with strategic defense planning.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for sharing your insights, Mikhail. This potential counteroffensive is a critical juncture in the conflict. The coming weeks could prove decisive.
