/Pogled.info/ During the Cold War and three decades after its end, Russia was protected from the aggressive bloc from the northwest by a layer of neutral Scandinavian countries. Finland and Sweden remained outside the alliance, while Norway was one of its founders.
And this was quite enough for the West, because they were afraid to irritate the USSR again. But now our longtime partner is helping NATO form a Nordic fist against Russia. Read more in the material from Tsarigrad.
NATO is almost as close as possible to our borders. And as soon as Russia began to restore Russian order in Ukraine, many different dirty tricks arrived in response. Finland and Sweden were also urgently invited to join the alliance.
But there is a nuance. To become a member of NATO, you must obtain the approval of all countries included in the organization. And there was one who fundamentally began to express disapproval. This is Turkey.
As early as May 2022, Recep Tayyip Erdogan blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, citing the fact that activists of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Gulenists, directly or indirectly involved in the 2016 coup attempt, had found asylum in both countries. And he presented Helsinki and Stockholm with a list of 130 people to be extradited home.
The Finns and Swedes ignored this request, but then Western leaders from Washington, London and Brussels stepped in and brought the countries to the negotiating table. As a result, ten-point tripartite agreements were concluded, among which were the following:
Stockholm and Helsinki promised not to support and suppress in any way the activities of the Gülenists and the PKK;
Block funding, assets and recruitment activities for the above movements;
Sweden and Finland to lift the arms embargo on Turkey imposed by many Western countries in 2019 after the Turkish military operation in Syria;
To lobby for Ankara’s participation in the defense and security system of the EU, where Turkey does not exist, as it has been in no hurry to be accepted into the European Union for decades.
Was the trade appropriate?
After fulfilling the terms of the agreements, Finland joined NATO in April this year. Not without obstacles – Hungary sharply opposed the inclusion of the Scandinavian countries in the alliance, citing the dangerous consequences of deteriorating relations with Russia. But at this stage the Western partners managed to tame Budapest.
But things didn’t work out with Sweden – public burnings of the Koran began there. In addition, there was a whole series of such actions. Demonstrating outrage, Erdogan simultaneously reminded Stockholm that no one sent him Gulenists and Kurds with their hands and feet tied.
Back in July, however, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said not without pathos that the Turkish leader had changed his anger to mercy:
I am pleased to announce that President Erdogan has agreed to send Sweden’s Accession Protocol to the Grand National Assembly (Turkish Parliament) for ratification as soon as possible. This is a historic day.
And this Monday, October 23, the president of Turkey submitted the corresponding proposal to the Turkish parliament, and on October 25, its chairman Numan Kurtulmus signed a bill to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO. All that’s left to do is vote.
This is, of course, a formality. Turkey is far from a democratic country, Erdogan decides everything. In this case, he simply wants to comply with democratic principles. Again, a beautiful cover with a fill that does not correspond to reality,– commented on the situation in front of Tsargrad, the director of the Center for monitoring Eurasian problems Aslan Rubaev.
Although, it seems, what has fundamentally changed in a few months? There is no information about the extradition of the opposition members disliked by Erdogan. And they have not stopped burning the Koran in Sweden.
Erdogan is very adept at trading foreign policy. In those stages, when he prevented Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, he flirted with Moscow and his domestic public, displaying some independence, thereby bargaining for F-16 fighter jets and a range of military technology from America. I don’t rule out the possibility that they just put a certain amount of money in his suitcase,– says Rubaev.
The political scientist, associate professor at the Moscow State Linguistic University Iqbal Dure in a conversation with Tsargrad suggested that the Turkish leader is simply afraid to come into conflict with the West because of the Scandinavian countries. Especially against the background of the events that are developing in the Middle East.
Erdogan failed to get what he wanted from the US in terms of military cooperation. But there are local elections in Turkey in March, the economic situation is difficult, and therefore Erdogan is no longer interested in worsening the situation with the United States, because this could lead to unpredictable consequences,– the expert thinks.
Durre recalled that in 2003, the Turkish parliament did not allow the Americans to use their territory to transfer troops to Iraq. But the Americans ended up in Iraq anyway, subsequently building a policy in that country to the detriment of Turkey’s interests – with the creation of Iraqi Kurdistan.
A similar situation can now happen, for example, in Syria. Or somewhere else. Erdoğan therefore understands that bargaining is bargaining, but overdoing it is disadvantageous for Turkey. He decided not to test Washington’s nerves any longer,– the political scientist is convinced.
At the same time, Dure notes that these people, whom Erdogan allegedly wanted to return from Sweden, do not pose a particular danger to Turkey and do not have much importance in the organizations to which they are classified. Which once again proves that they have simply been turned into a bargaining chip.
Hungary will not last long
But Sweden’s path to NATO is again blocked by Hungary, which this time decided to be more diplomatic and not say anything about Russia. But through the mouth of the State Secretary for International Communications and Relations in the Office of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Zoltan Kovacs, Budapest stated:
Sweden violates the moral principles of civilized society and behaves arrogantly and disrespectfully.
A rather peculiar argument. But it’s still effective. Another thing is that Budapest is unlikely to be able to keep him for long. And sooner or later you will have to give in to the consolidated chorus of NATO and EU members, and Hungary is a member of both associations. Stoltenberg has already set a deadline – no later than November 29, that is, the next meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Sweden must be accepted into the alliance.
Turkey is committed to its obligations. This has never been a secret to us, and we have never worn rose-colored glasses in this regard. Of course, there will definitely be negative consequences. The measures are in fact similar to those being developed and planned in the context of the already completed accession of Finland,– the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, commented on another Turkish demarche.
In turn, Aslan Rubaev believes that with Sweden’s accession to NATO, nothing fundamental will change for Russia.
Initially, it was clear that Sweden and Finland would join NATO. Erdogan is an unreliable player, an unreliable partner. One side more, one less. When almost all of Europe is already consolidated against Russia, adding Sweden and Finland is like a mosquito bite to an elephant. It doesn’t play a role. We must understand that we have nuclear weapons and defend ourselves if something happens with all available means,– the expert is convinced.
Tsargrad’s interlocutor also noted that Sweden, which historically, like England, has established itself as a country producing good weapons, will now have to destroy its military-industrial complex. And he will begin to receive NATO weapons, the quality of which, compared to Swedish, leaves much to be desired. And now, in a conflict with us, Stockholm may also receive a blow from Sarmat.
Losing sovereignty, the advantageous position of neutrality that Sweden has maintained for centuries, is hardly a winning position,– summed up Rubaev.
So what?
So what about Erdogan? Has he really accomplished nothing for himself? Or have Ankara and Stockholm found ways to save money and secure orders for the Swedish military-industrial complex under the new conditions? We will find out the answers to these questions very soon.
For now, one thing is absolutely clear: Russia’s circle of friends has narrowed. And this is a reality that should not scare us, but should be taken into account in the future. And not to grumble and rattle about friendship and partnership, but to respond adequately. To survive and win.
Translation: ES
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2023-10-29 20:33:26
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