This week, NATO’s military commander-in-chief, General Christopher Cavoli, warned about Russia bolstering their forces with new soldiers much faster than USA previously estimated. He also claims that Russia’s army is now 15 percent larger than it was when Russia invaded Ukraine in full in 2022.
ABC Nyheter has spoken to professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Staff School, Tormod Heier, about Cavoli’s statements. He says claims that the Russian army is larger than it was before the invasion may be true.
– But then that means that the land forces mainly consist of newly recruited civilians and reservists without much basic military skills. Whether the General Staff and headquarters in Rostov are able to convert the mass of soldiers into a series of meaningful maneuvers in Donbas is doubtful, says Heier, and states:
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– Thus, the increase will not have any immediate effect on a Ukrainian defense line which seems to be in balance, and which still has a good situational understanding of what the Russians are planning.
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Only 0.008 percent of Ukraine
According to the professor, the increase in the mass of Russian soldiers must therefore primarily be seen as an expression of two things.
- A desire from the military to report to the Kremlin that the target figures on the personnel side are being met.
- That an attrition strategy towards Ukraine is the only viable path.
– With such figures, it is still surprising that the Russians have only managed to seize 500 square kilometers since October last year. This is a small area of land that corresponds to slightly more than Oslo, and makes up only 0.008 percent of Ukraine. That so many soldiers can achieve so incredibly little, against a Ukrainian counterpart that lacks weapons, ammunition and soldiers – that probably says more about the Russian than the Ukrainian warfare, says Heier.
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Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations, says the only thing that can help the Russians now is a lack of support on the western side. Photo: Ole Berg-rusten / NTB
Must be taken with a pinch of salt
Heier also reminds that one must take General Cavoli’s statements with a pinch of salt, as he has strong ties to the Ukrainian defense struggle.
According to Heier, the general’s statements are highly political because they are designed to influence political decision-making processes in Washington DC.
– In this way, the military expertise is mixed with the political in a way that makes the message a bit unvarnished and one-sided. This weakens the professional integrity of the US commander-in-chief in Europe since the military becomes part of a domestic political power struggle in Washington DC, says Heier.
– Not the merit of the Russians
In his warning to Congress, Cavoli also clarified that what is perhaps most disturbing is how the Russian military has shown in the past year an increasing ability to learn and adapt to both tactical and technological challenges on the battlefield.
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– They have become a learning organization that is very different from the chaotic force that invaded Ukraine two years ago, writes Cavoli.
Heier is not of the same opinion. He may agree that the Russians have developed in several areas, such as in the development of glide bombs, which allow the planes to drop their cargo further away from the Ukrainian air defenses, but to call the Russian forces a teachable organization is to understate it far, according to the professor.
– With so many resources, against such a tired Ukrainian counterpart, one should have expected much, much more. But that doesn’t happen. The only thing that can help the Russians now is a lack of support on the western side. But that is not the merit of the Russian forces. It is the dysfunctional political system in the United States.
2024-04-14 06:02:08
#Rebukes #Nato #general #Wont #effect
