These islands, belonging to Western countries, have ended up under Russian spotlight since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, according to Paul Goble, former analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). In fact, they have been described by the American media as the NATO’s “Achilles’ heel” and the “islands of temptation” from Russia.
On previous occasions, as Goble points out, Russia has already shown interest in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean and in Gotland in Sweden, of great importance for the defense of the Baltic Sea region.something that the Norwegians also supported in 2021 after an investigation, in which Finnish Lapland and Svalbard were also named as potential targets for Russia.
An “Achilles heel” of NATO
For the former CIA analyst, the interest of Putin’s country in the islands is due, in part, to the defensive measures taken by the neighbors of countries such as Norway, Finland or Sweden, of a “harder line.”
Furthermore, he cites three events that have occurred these weeks that “should lead to reconsidering demilitarization of Aland, which has been unoccupied since 1856, except during the world wars.
One of them is that the Russian media is beginning to make observations about the “vulnerability” of the area, a tactic used in the past by the Russians to justify their actions.
The second event mentioned by Goble is Russia’s control in the coastal area of the Baltic Sea, which is currently 7%, which suggests that in the event of demilitarization Russia could take a step forward and try to respond by arguing “the national security of Russia.”
Finally, this highlights the recent Russian military exercise Okean held in September 2024, considered the “largest military exercise on the high seas of Russian President Vladimir Putin in three decades”, which even set off alarm bells in the Department of Defense of United States and that Nikolai Patrushev, former secretary of the Russian Security Council (who is now an advisor to Putin), stated that they were a sign that they were capable of carrying out “atypical operational tasks.”
These statements are considered by Goble to be a euphemism referring to attacks by other countries. “Patrushev is probably thinking about Aland”Goble noted.
“While the West is considering the remilitarization and neutralization of the Aland Islands, Moscow may try to act before Helsinki and the West can adopt a new policy“Goble concluded in his analysis.
