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The Kremlin is likely to agree to freeze the conflict on the front lines, five current and former Russian officials said.
Three of the people, who all spoke on condition of anonymity, said Moscow would be open to negotiations on the exact division of Ukraine’s four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.
Although Moscow claims that these four areas are completely Russia’s, its armed forces control 70-80% of the landon the ground, but about 26,000 square kilometers remain in hands of Ukrainian soldiers, according to openly available front data.
Two officials said that Russia may also be ready to withdraw from the relatively small territories in the north and south of Ukraine – Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.
The future of Crimea itself is not discussed, all Russian officials said.
One senior official, who is said to be well-informed about the Kremlin’s high-level discussions, said the West alone must accept the “hard truth” that all the aid given to Ukraine could not prevent made Russia win the war.
Russian leader Putin said earlier this month that any ceasefire agreement would have to reflect “reality” but was “fearful of a short-term ceasefire that would only allow the West to Rearming Ukraine”.
“Without neutrality, it is difficult to imagine good neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine,” Putin said.
The Kremlin master put forward the initial terms of the session already in mid-June. At the time, he stressed that Ukraine should abandon its goal of becoming a NATO member state and withdraw all Ukrainian troops from the borders of four claimed and largely controlled Ukrainian regions. of Russia.
Meanwhile, the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine could be discussed as a guarantee of Kyiv’s future security, five current and former officials told Reuters.
According to the document, a copy of which was obtained by the group, Ukraine would have to agree to permanent neutrality in exchange for international security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – Great Britain, China, France , Russia and Russia. United States.
The Kremlin has also insisted that the protection of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine should be guaranteed in the event of a ceasefire. In addition, the Kerch bridge, which connects Russia to Crimea, must be safe.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, has already announced that he will not stop until Russia – down to its last soldier – is expelled from the borders of Ukraine, as they were after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Western allies have also repeatedly warned that freezing this war would only give Russia time to arm itself and then invade even wider areas with a new power – outside including Ukraine.
In early October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a win-win plan for his country and its allies that included five points and three secret supplements.
One of the most important points of the influence plan was NATO’s invitation to Ukraine to become a member of this alliance. The second and third points were preparing to strengthen the defense of Ukraine and prevent Russian aggression.
The fourth point referred to the possible economic cooperation with the allies, and the fifth point of this plan referred to the period after the war and anticipated the use of the knowledge of the Ukraine for the defense of Europe.
Also, Zelenskiy emphasized that the implementation of this plan is not in the hands of Russia or Ukraine, but in the hands of the Western allies. The Ukrainian president also said that “Putin has gone mad and he only wants war.”
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2024-11-20 12:48:00
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What are the specific conditions the Kremlin is proposing for a ceasefire in Ukraine, and how does it define “reality” regarding territorial control?
1. Can you provide more information about the conditions that the Kremlin is proposing for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine? Specifically, what does “reality” mean in terms of territorial control and what are the implications of a potential freeze in conflict without NATO involvement?
2. How do you assess the likelihood of Russia adhering to a ceasefire agreement, given the recent statements made by President Putin regarding NATO’s involvement and Ukraine’s neutrality?
3. What role do you see for neutrality playing in the future of Ukrainian-Russian relations, and do you think this is a realistic expectation given current tensions?
4. What are the potential benefits and drawbacks of Ukraine becoming a NATO member state, particularly in the context of Russia’s recent actions and the ongoing conflict?
5. How do you foresee the negotiations over the future of Crimea and the disputed territories shaping up, and what factors might influence these discussions?
6. What are your thoughts on the Ukrainian President’s “peace plan” presented in early October? Do you think it is realistic and achievable under current circumstances, or is it too idealistic?
7. How do you believe the West’s stance towards Ukraine’s future membership in NATO may change in light of the ongoing conflict and potential political shifts in the region?
8. As the conflict continues, what measures can be taken to ensure the safety and protection of civilians in both Ukraine and Russia?
9. What are the long-term implications of the war in Ukraine for international security and global power dynamics, particularly given the involvement of major world powers like the United States and China?
10. What role do you think diplomacy, negotiation, and sanctions play in bringing about a lasting resolution to the conflict in Ukraine?
